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SPOT, cashflow is much higher but expensive
Current 192 Target 217 +13%
February 3 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Costs up profit negative again
Cashflow higher & expected 50% higher again
Balance sheet lower leverage
Valuation, a 13% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
- Sales grew 8% in the fourth quarter to 2,689 million euros vs our 2,701 million euros forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,203 million euros in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Costs up profit negative again
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -97% profit from 2 to -39 million euros in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use a lower -94% cost ratio to predict a 62 million euros profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Cashflow higher & expected 50% higher again
- Free cashflow went from 89 to 93 million euros in the fourth quarter with lower -16 million euros investment spending & positive working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 52 million euros now.
- We assume the same -16 million euros investment spending which with higher sales gives a 157 million euros Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
- Cash increased 2,512 to 2,744 million euros in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,872 to 5,051 million euros so net cash improved -2,360 to -2,307 million euros.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -56 million euros equity payout -551 million euros liabilities payment net cash will be -1,756 million euros in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 13% higher target price
- SPOT capital raised from the last 28 quarters improved -1,521 to -1,506 million euros in the third quarter with a -15 million euros equity payout (tax on stock options) & will be -939 million euros in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 32,533 million euros based on our forecasts it’s at 4.8 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 567 million euros which means an 57 X valuation. A 65 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price of 217 dollars.