SONA long recovery road
SONA Current 3,630 Target 2,937 -19%
Aug 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 36%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
50% -50% 222% 14% 36%
18 9 29 33 45
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-211% -333% 34% -135% -143%
-30 -31 29 -21 -29
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-17 -19 -11 -7 3
1 3 0 1 -1
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
466 448 437 432 437
155 174 92 104 285
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 10, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital 0% of market cap
- Latest net cash 13% of market cap
Sales grew 36%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
50% -50% 222% 14% 36%
18 9 29 33 45
- Sales grew 36% in the second quarter to 45 billion rupiah, up 150% from a year ago.
- This brings the average to 56% growth.
- We predict average growth of 38% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 142 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-211% -333% 34% -135% -143%
-30 -31 29 -21 -29
- The cash cost ratio went from -135% to -143% profit from -21 to -29 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -144% now.
- We use a -93% cost ratio (from cashflow) to predict a 1 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-17 -19 -11 -7 3
1 3 0 1 -1
- Free cashflow went from -5 to 3 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -7 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 10 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the second quarter 2023..
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
466 448 437 432 437
155 174 92 104 285
- Cash increased 432 to 437 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 104 to 285 billion rupiah so net cash was down 328 to 152 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -25 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 177 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
- SONA cumulative capital was flat at 0 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 25 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,202 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.4 X assets with an 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 39 billion rupiah which means a 31 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 2,937 rupiah.
