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SNOW dull with a still expensive valuation
SNOW Current 148 Target 140 -6%
Jun 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew a slower 10%
Last 5 quarters
20% 19% 23% 15% 10%
Costs flat profit improves
Last 5 quarters
-107% -97% -93% -92% -92%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-242, 30, 187, 115, -5
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-326 -368 -222 -515 -502
Capital raised worsened , a -6% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-4,885 -4,910 -4,960 -4,997 -5,038
Jun 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew a slower 10%
Last 5 quarters
20% 19% 23% 15% 10%
- Sales grew a slower 10% in the first quarter to 422 million dollars -4% below our 442 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 664 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit improves
Last 5 quarters
-107% -97% -93% -92% -92%
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -92% profit improved from -132 to -166 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the latest -92% cost ratio to predict a -23 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-242, 30, 187, 115, -5
- Free cashflow went negative again from 115 to -5 million dollars in the first quarter with -190 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 82 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -16 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 159 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-326 -368 -222 -515 -502
- Cash declined 1,086 to 1,063 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,601 to 1,565 million dollars so net cash improved -515 to -502 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -758 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -212 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a -6% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-4,885 -4,910 -4,960 -4,997 -5,038
- SNOW 11 quarter capital raised worsened -4,997 to -5,038 million dollars in the first quarter with 0 million dollars liabilities - 41 million dollars equity but will be -4,281 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 47,127 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 8 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 635 million dollars which means a 74 X valuation. A 70 X valuation gives a -6% lower target price 140 dollars.
