SNOW still expensive
SNOW Current 170 Target 164 -4%
October 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
19% 23% 15% 10% 18%
272 334 384 422 497
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-97% -93% -92% -92% -89%
-190 -155 -132 -166 -223
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-6 16 79 185 64
36 171 36 -190 -196
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
699 935 1,086 1,063 907
1,067 1,157 1,601 1,565 1,638
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-4,910 -4,960 -4,997 -5,038 -4,963
0 0 0 0 0
0 -50 -37 -41 75
October 2, 2022
1 minute read
- SNOW last 12 months sales growth + 83%
- SNOW last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- SNOW last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- SNOW latest net cash -1% of market cap
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
19% 23% 15% 10% 18%
272 334 384 422 497
- Sales grew 18% in the second quarter to 497 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 0% now.
- This brings the average to 16% growth.
- We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 782 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-97% -93% -92% -92% -89%
-190 -155 -132 -166 -223
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -89% profit from -166 to -223 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use the average -91% cost ratio to predict a -66 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-6 16 79 185 64
36 171 36 -190 -196
- Free cashflow went from -5 to -132 million dollars in the second quarter with -196 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 41 million dollars now.
- We assume -45 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 65 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
699 935 1,086 1,063 907
1,067 1,157 1,601 1,565 1,638
- Cash declined 1,063 to 907 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,565 to 1,638 million dollars so net cash was down -502 to -731 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 million dollars equity -936 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -469 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-4,910 -4,960 -4,997 -5,038 -4,963
0 0 0 0 0
0 -50 -37 -41 75
- SNOW cumulative capital improved -5,038 to -4,963 million dollars with 0 & + 75 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -4,027 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 54,387 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 10 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 262 million dollars (vs 165 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 208 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -4% lower target price 164 dollars.
