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SNOW looking sharper as average cashflow turns positive
SNOW Current 223 Target 320 +44%
Mar 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters
19% 20% 19% 23% 15%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-114% -107% -97% -93% -92%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,141 -242 30 187 115
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-165 -326 -368 -222 -515
Capital raised worsened, a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-4,817 -4,885 -4,910 -4,960 -4,996
Mar 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters
19% 20% 19% 23% 15%
- Sales grew 15% in the fourth quarter to 384 million dollars -4% below our 398 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 15% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 677 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-114% -107% -97% -93% -92%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -92% profit from -155 to -132 million dollars in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use a lower -86% cost ratio as sales rise to predict a positive 44 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,141 -242 30 187 115
- Free cashflow went from 187 to 115 million dollars in the fourth quarter with lower 36 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has turned positive at 22 million dollars now.
- We assume -3 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 204 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-165 -326 -368 -222 -515
- Cash increased 935 to 1,086 million dollars in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased 1,157 to 1,601 million dollars so net cash worsened -222 to -515 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -13 million dollars equity payout -672 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -136 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened, a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-4,817 -4,885 -4,910 -4,960 -4,996
- SNOW 12 quarters capital raised worsened -4,960 to -4,996 million dollars in the fourth quarter with37 million dollars new equity but will be -4,311 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 68,259 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 12 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 817 million dollars which means an 84 X valuation. A 120 X valuation gives a 44% higher target price of 320 rupiah.
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