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SNOW still expensive

SNOW Current 170 Target 164 -4%

October 2, 2022
1 minute read

  • SNOW last 12 months sales growth + 83%
  • SNOW last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
  • SNOW last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
  • SNOW latest net cash -1% of market cap
​
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
19% 23% 15% 10% 18%
272 334 384 422 497
  • Sales grew 18% in the second quarter to 497 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 0% now.
  • This brings the average to 16% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 782 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
​
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-97% -93% -92% -92% -89%
-190 -155 -132 -166 -223
  • The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -89% profit from -166 to -223 million dollars in the second quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
  • We use the average -91% cost ratio to predict a -66 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-6 16 79 185 64
36 171 36 -190 -196
  • Free cashflow went from -5 to -132 million dollars in the second quarter with -196 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 41 million dollars now.
  • We assume -45 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 65 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
699 935 1,086 1,063 907
1,067 1,157 1,601 1,565 1,638
  • Cash declined 1,063 to 907 million dollars in the second quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,565 to 1,638 million dollars so net cash was down -502 to -731 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & 0 million dollars equity -936 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -469 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-4,910 -4,960 -4,997 -5,038 -4,963
0 0 0 0 0
0 -50 -37 -41 75
  • SNOW cumulative capital improved -5,038 to -4,963 million dollars with 0 & + 75 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -4,027 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 54,387 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 10 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 262 million dollars (vs 165 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 208 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -4% lower target price 164 dollars.
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