SNAP margins negative
SNAP Current 8 Target 8 + 8%
October 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
9% 22% -18% 5% 2%
1,068 1,298 1,063 1,111 1,129
Costs up profit less negative
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-86% -77% -97% -101% -104%
-72 23 -360 -422 -360
Cashflow positive with investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
72 186 128 -124 56
-155 -167 -1,018 11 65
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
1,972 1,994 2,413 2,298 1,919
3,671 3,746 5,382 5,347 5,385
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-6,606 -6,609 -7,918 -7,917 -7,416
0 0 -1,307 3 0
0 -3 -2 -1 501
October 23, 2022
1 minute read
- SNAP last 12 months sales growth + 6%
- SNAP last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
- SNAP last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
- SNAP latest net cash -28% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
9% 22% -18% 5% 2%
1,068 1,298 1,063 1,111 1,129
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 1,129 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,190 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit less negative
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-86% -77% -97% -101% -104%
-72 23 -360 -422 -360
- The cash cost ratio went from -101% to -104% profit from -422 to -360 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use a -95% cost ratio to predict a -286 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive with investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
72 186 128 -124 56
-155 -167 -1,018 11 65
- Free cashflow went from -113 to 121 million dollars in the third quarter with positive 65 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -216 million dollars now.
- We assume 11 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 76 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
1,972 1,994 2,413 2,298 1,919
3,671 3,746 5,382 5,347 5,385
- Cash declined 2,298 to 1,919 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,347 to 5,385 million dollars so net cash was down -3,049 to -3,466 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 million dollars equity -303 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -3,163 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-6,606 -6,609 -7,918 -7,917 -7,416
0 0 -1,307 3 0
0 -3 -2 -1 501
- SNAP cumulative capital improved -7,917 to -7,416 million dollars with 0 & + 501 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -7,113 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 12,518 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.8 X assets with a 21 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 301 million dollars (vs -829 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 42 X valuation. A 45 X valuation gives a 8% higher target price 8 dollars.
