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SMSM looking sharp with a 7% yield forecast
SMSM Current 1,535 Target 2,371 + 54%
15 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
4% 3% 5% 8% 4%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-78% -80% -79% -80% -80%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
186, 129, -187, 169, 273
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12, -246, -314, -296, -95
Capital paid improved a 54% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah , a 54% higher target price
1,620 1,769 1,807 1,989 2,041
15 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
4% 3% 5% 8% 4%
- Sales grew 4% in the first quarter to 1,180 billion rupiah 7% above our 1,106 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,301 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-78% -80% -79% -80% -80%
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -80% profit from 188 to 210 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the average -79% cost ratio to predict a 237 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
186, 129, -187, 169, 273
- Free cashflow went from 169 to 273 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -48 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 96 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -36 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 224 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12, -246, -314, -296, -95
- Cash increased 661 to 884 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 957 to 979 billion rupiah so net cash improved -296 to -95 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -652 billion rupiah equity payout -182 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be positive 163 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved a 54% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah , a 54% higher target price
1,620 1,769 1,807 1,989 2,041
- SMSM 25 quarter capital paid improved 1,989 to 2,041 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -48 billion rupiah liabilities -4 billion rupiah equity payments & will be 2,844 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,840 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.11 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 910 billion rupiah which means an 10 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 54% higher target price 2,371 rupiah.