SMSM 8% yield forecast
SMSM Current 1,520 Target 2,261 + 49%
15/11/2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 19%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
5% 8% 4% -5% 19%
1,053 1,140 1,180 1,126 1,343
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-79% -80% -80% -78% -76%
191 188 210 210 285
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-159 201 321 202 229
-28 -31 -48 -45 -109
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
675 661 884 993 899
989 957 979 1,001 1,175
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,807 1,989 2,041 2,112 2,336
-87 54 48 -38 -59
126 127 4 109 284
15/11/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 28%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
- Latest net cash -3% of market cap
Sales jumped 19%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
5% 8% 4% -5% 19%
1,053 1,140 1,180 1,126 1,343
- Sales jumped 19% in the third quarter to 1,343 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -8% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,406 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-79% -80% -80% -78% -76%
191 188 210 210 285
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -76% profit from 210 to 285 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use a -78% cost ratio to predict a 268 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-159 201 321 202 229
-28 -31 -48 -45 -109
- Free cashflow went from 157 to 120 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -109 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 180 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -58 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 232 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
675 661 884 993 899
989 957 979 1,001 1,175
- Cash declined 993 to 899 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,001 to 1,175 billion rupiah so net cash was down -8 to -276 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -718 billion rupiah equity payout -211 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -65 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,807 1,989 2,041 2,112 2,336
-87 54 48 -38 -59
126 127 4 109 284
- SMSM cumulative capital improved 2,112 to 2,336 billion rupiah with -59 & + 284 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 3,266 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,746 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.95 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 929 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 14 X valuation gives a 49% higher target price 2,261 rupiah.
