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SMSM looking sharp with a 13% yield forecast
SMSM Current 1,295 Target 2,299 + 78%
26 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
3% 5% 8% 4% -5%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-80% -79% -80% -80% -78%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
129 -187 169 273 157
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-246 -314 -296 -95 -8
Cumulative capital paid improved a 78% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah , a 78% higher target price
1,769 1,807 1,989 2,041 2,112
26 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
3% 5% 8% 4% -5%
- Sales declined -5% in the second quarter to 1,126 billion rupiah -9% below our 1,239 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,300 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-80% -79% -80% -80% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -78% profit from 210 to 210 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the average -79% cost ratio to predict a 239 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
129 -187 169 273 157
- Free cashflow went from 273 to 157 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -45 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 103 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -38 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 221 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-246 -314 -296 -95 -8
- Cash increased 884 to 993 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 979 to 1,001 billion rupiah so net cash improved -95 to -8 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -940 billion rupiah equity payout 58 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -28 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Cumulative capital paid improved a 78% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah , a 78% higher target price
1,769 1,807 1,989 2,041 2,112
- SMSM 26 quarter cumulative capital paid improved 2,041 to 2,112 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -38 billion rupiah from liabilities + 109 billion rupiah from equity & will be 2,923 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,457 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.76 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 883 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 78% higher target price 2,299 rupiah.
