SMRA cashflow back down
SMRA Current 620 Target 751 + 21%
Aug 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
30% -4% 34% -17% -14%
1,388 1,331 1,778 1,470 1,259
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -89% -78% -80% -89%
119 79 316 236 72
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
609 385 1,036 1,411 336
-133 -111 -163 -89 -179
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,842 2,086 2,774 3,570 3,247
17,400 14,800 14,920 15,810 15,907
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,430 -2,399 -2,297 -1,824 -1,292
1,047 964 385 482 362
-1,499 67 -283 -9 170
Aug 8, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 26% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 21% of market cap
- Latest net cash -124% of market cap
Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
30% -4% 34% -17% -14%
1,388 1,331 1,778 1,470 1,259
- Sales declined -14% in the second quarter to 1,259 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 5% now.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,493 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -89% -78% -80% -89%
119 79 316 236 72
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -89% profit from 236 to 72 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use a -82% cost ratio to predict a 214 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
609 385 1,036 1,411 336
-133 -111 -163 -89 -179
- Free cashflow went from 1,321 to 158 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -179 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 657 billion rupiah now.
- We lower -89 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 163 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,842 2,086 2,774 3,570 3,247
17,400 14,800 14,920 15,810 15,907
- Cash declined 3,570 to 3,247 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 15,810 to 15,907 billion rupiah so net cash was down -12,241 to -12,660 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -77 billion rupiah equity payout -576 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -12,084 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,430 -2,399 -2,297 -1,824 -1,292
1,047 964 385 482 362
-1,499 67 -283 -9 170
- SMRA cumulative capital improved -1,824 to -1,292 billion rupiah with + 362 & + 170 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -640 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 10,235 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.37 X assets with a 37 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 652 billion rupiah which means a 16 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price 751 rupiah.
