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SMRA looking quite sharp with strong cashflow
SMRA Current 710 Target 1,169 + 65%
May 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -17%
Last 5 quarters
-40% 30% -4% 34% -17%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -86% -89% -78% -80%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
324, 476, 274, 873, 1,321
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,572 -14,558 -12,714 -12,146 -12,241
Capital raised improved , a 65% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,979 -3,430 -2,399 -2,213 -1,687
May 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -17%
Last 5 quarters
-40% 30% -4% 34% -17%
- Sales declined -17% in the first quarter to 1,470 billion rupiah 3% above our 1,423 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,638 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -86% -89% -78% -80%
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -80% profit from 316 to 236 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use a lower -80% cost ratio to predict a 270 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
324, 476, 274, 873, 1,321
- Free cashflow went from 873 to 1,321 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -89 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 736 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -89 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 238 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,572 -14,558 -12,714 -12,146 -12,241
- Cash increased 2,774 to 3,570 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 14,920 to 15,810 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -12,146 to -12,241 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -114 billion rupiah equity payout -902 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -11,339 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 65% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,979 -3,430 -2,399 -2,213 -1,687
- SMRA 29 quarter capital raised improved -2,213 to -1,687 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -482 billion rupiah liabilities payment 9 billion rupiah new equity & will be -672 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 11,721 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.43 X assets with a 23 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,016 billion rupiah which means an 12 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 65% higher target price 1,169 rupiah.