SMRA.jk Cashflow positive
Current 600 Target 778 + 30%
12/29/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-4% 34% -17% -14% 18%
1,331 ; 1,778 ; 1,470 ; 1,259 ; 1,483 billion rupiah
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
11% 22% 20% 11% 12%
79 ; 316 ; 236 ; 72 ; 115 billion rupiah
Cashflow positive, lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
385 ; 1,036 ; 1,411 ; 336 ; 352 billion rupiah
-111 ; -163 ; -89 ; -179 ; -201 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
2,086 ; 2,774 ; 3,570 ; 3,247 ; 3,038 billion rupiah
14,800 ; 14,920 ; 15,810 ; 15,907 ; 16,174 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
964 ; 385 ; 482 ; 362 ; 423 billion rupiah
67 ; -283 ; -9 ; 170 ; -62 billion rupiah
Current 600 Target 778 + 30%
12/29/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 11%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 25% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 15% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -133% of market cap
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-4% 34% -17% -14% 18%
1,331 ; 1,778 ; 1,470 ; 1,259 ; 1,483 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 18% in the third quarter to 1,483 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 0% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,682 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
11% 22% 20% 11% 12%
79 ; 316 ; 236 ; 72 ; 115 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from 11% to 12% profit from 72 to 115 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 16% now.
- We use a 16% cash margin to predict a 209 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive, lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
385 ; 1,036 ; 1,411 ; 336 ; 352 billion rupiah
-111 ; -163 ; -89 ; -179 ; -201 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 158 to 152 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -201 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 626 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -130 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 123 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
2,086 ; 2,774 ; 3,570 ; 3,247 ; 3,038 billion rupiah
14,800 ; 14,920 ; 15,810 ; 15,907 ; 16,174 billion rupiah
- Cash declined 3,247 to 3,038 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 15,907 to 16,174 billion rupiah so net cash was down -12,660 to -13,136 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -494 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -12,642 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
964 ; 385 ; 482 ; 362 ; 423 billion rupiah
67 ; -283 ; -9 ; 170 ; -62 billion rupiah
- SMRA.jk paid 361 billion rupiah in the third quarter 423 billion rupiah liabilities -62 billion rupiah equity, will pay 494 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 9,905 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.36 X assets with a 50 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 494 billion rupiah which means a 20 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price 778 rupiah.