SMMA much improved cashflow
SMMA Current 12,200 Target 11,915 -2%
Aug 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-24% 1% 32% -23% -7%
8,263 8,326 11,031 8,448 7,816
Costs up profit negative
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-90% -73% -101% -92% -98%
333 938 -575 425 -132
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-1,330 1,168 5,062 -3,435 5,419
-85 -12 -127 -123 -71
Net cash assets to liabilities down to 118%
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
111,485 110,669 111,097 110,750 116,761
91,449 91,392 94,728 92,471 98,991
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-5,410 -5,280 -4,561 -4,917 -4,660
-172 130 688 -355 260
0 0 32 -2 -3
Aug 25, 2022
1 minute read
- SMMA last 12 months sales growth still weak at -5%
- SMMA last 12 months cash flow well above average at + 10% of market cap
- SMMA last 12 months Capital a small positive + 1% of market cap
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-24% 1% 32% -23% -7%
8,263 8,326 11,031 8,448 7,816
- Sales declined -7% in the second quarter to 7,816 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 6% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,081 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit negative
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-90% -73% -101% -92% -98%
333 938 -575 425 -132
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -98% profit from 425 to -132 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use a -89% cost ratio to predict a 626 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-1,330 1,168 5,062 -3,435 5,419
-85 -12 -127 -123 -71
- Free cashflow went positive again from -3,558 to 5,348 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -71 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,971 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -71 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 862 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash assets to liabilities down to 118%
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
111,485 110,669 111,097 110,750 116,761
91,449 91,392 94,728 92,471 98,991
- Non cash assets increased 110,750 to 116,761 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 92,471 to 98,991 billion rupiah .
- So non cash assets/ liabilities was down 120% to 118% .
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-5,410 -5,280 -4,561 -4,917 -4,660
-172 130 688 -355 260
0 0 32 -2 -3
- SMMA cumulative capital improved -4,917 to -4,660 billion rupiah with + 260 & -3 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -3,280 . in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 77,685 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,449 billion rupiah which means a 23 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a -2% lower target price 11,915 rupiah.
