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SMMA, profit to follow cashflow higher a 117% higher target price
Current 11,200 Target 24,320 +117%
November 29th 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Costs 17 points lower, profit triples
Cashflow positive & leading profit
Balance sheet, average growth still down, but improved from previous quarter
Valuation, capital improves, a 117% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the third quarter to 8,326 billion rupiah vs our 9,916 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -1% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 10,178 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 17 points lower, profit triples
- The cash cost ratio was at -73% in the third quarter giving a 938 billion rupiah net profit even with higher 1,200 billion rupiah provisions.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is higher at -80% now.
- We use the latest -73% cost ratio & lower -586 billion rupiah provisions to give a 2X higher 2,052 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow positive & leading profit
- Free cashflow was positive again at 1,156 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -12 billion rupiah investment.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,547 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -12 billion rupiah investment which with higher sales gives a 2,735 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, average growth still down, but improved from previous quarter
- Non cash asset growth improved from -3% to -1% in the third quarter while the quarterly average is 3% growth.
- Liabilities growth also improved from -7% to 0% in the third quarter & the quarterly average is 4% growth.
- The sales to asset ratio was also better from 7% to 8% in the third quarter & the quarterly average is 9% now.
Valuation, capital improves, a 117% higher target price
- SMMA capital from the last 23 quarters was slightly improved at -2,816 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will improve to -539 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 71,320 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 10,324 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 117% higher target price of 24,320 rupiah.