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SMGR looking sharper as capital paid jumps back to pre acquisition level
SMGR Current 7,200 Target 11,241 +56%
March 1 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters
-1% -15% 1% 12% 6%
Costs flat profit down on non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-77% -84% -87% -84% -84%
Cashflow seasonally lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
855, 1,445, 1,375, 1,457 , 623
Balance sheet slightly higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-39,422 -37,824 -35,407 -32,202 -32,470
Capital paid jumped, a 56% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,015, -1,526, 988, 1,249, 2,805
March 1 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters
-1% -15% 1% 12% 6%
- Sales grew 6% in the fourth quarter to 9,628 billion rupiah below our 10,485 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 11,596 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs flat profit down on non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-77% -84% -87% -84% -84%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -84% profit fell slightly from 655 to 638 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the latest -84% cost ratio to predict a 990 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow seasonally lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
855, 1,445, 1,375, 1,457 , 623
- Free cashflow went from 1,457 to 623 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with seasonally high -1,819 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,225 billion rupiah now.
- We assume average -447 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 1,222 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet slightly higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-39,422 -37,824 -35,407 -32,202 -32,470
- Cash declined 3,539 to 2,470 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 35,741 to 34,940 billion rupiah so net cash worsened slightly -32,202 to -32,470 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -888 billion rupiah equity payout -2,999 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -28,933 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid jumped, a 56% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,015, -1,526, 988, 1,249, 2,805
- SMGR 28 quarters capital paid jumped 1,249 to 2,805 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -1,539 billion rupiah liabilities -15 billion rupiah equity payments & will be 4,574 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 42,326 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s cheap at 0.56 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,887 billion rupiah which means an 11 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 56% higher target price of 11,241 rupiah.