SMGR half asset value
SMGR Current 6,525 Target 11,741 + 80%
Sep 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 12% 6% -15% -5%
8,137 9,117 9,628 8,137 7,739
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-87% -84% -84% -84% -85%
343 655 638 524 345
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
455 1,738 2,307 384 637
757 -426 -1,819 -261 869
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,500 3,539 2,470 2,545 1,990
37,907 35,741 34,940 35,396 31,640
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
988 1,248 2,802 2,852 4,915
1,381 3,380 1,539 5 1,043
1,133 -3,120 15 45 1,020
Sep 6, 2022
1 minute read
- SMGR last 12 months sales growth -5%
- SMGR last 12 months cash flow 2X average + 9% of market cap
- SMGR last 12 months Capital 10X average + 10% of market cap
- SMGR latest net cash -77% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 12% 6% -15% -5%
8,137 9,117 9,628 8,137 7,739
- Sales declined seasonally -5% in the second quarter to 7,739 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 10,006 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-87% -84% -84% -84% -85%
343 655 638 524 345
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -85% profit from 524 to 345 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 912 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
455 1,738 2,307 384 637
757 -426 -1,819 -261 869
- Free cashflow went from 123 to 1,506 billion rupiah in the second quarter with positive 869 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 857 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -409 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1,078 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,500 3,539 2,470 2,545 1,990
37,907 35,741 34,940 35,396 31,640
- Cash declined 2,545 to 1,990 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 35,396 to 31,640 billion rupiah so net cash was up -32,851 to -29,650 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -937 billion rupiah equity payout -2,869 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -25,879 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
988 1,248 2,802 2,852 4,915
1,381 3,380 1,539 5 1,043
1,133 -3,120 15 45 1,020
- SMGR cumulative capital improved 2,852 to 4,915 billion rupiah with + 1,043 & + 1,020 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 8,720 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 38,358 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.53 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 4,314 billion rupiah (vs 3,919 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 9 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 80% higher target price 11,741 rupiah.
