SMGR sales growing faster
SMGR Current 7,750 Target 10,779 + 39%
10/31/22
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 22%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% 6% -15% -5% 22%
9,117 9,628 8,137 7,739 9,405
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-84% -84% -84% -85% -83%
655 638 524 345 864
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,738 2,307 384 637 1,900
-426 -1,819 -261 869 -412
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,539 2,470 2,545 1,990 2,435
35,741 34,940 35,396 31,640 31,585
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,248 2,802 2,852 4,915 5,965
3,380 1,539 5 1,043 1,051
-3,120 15 45 1,020 -1
10/31/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 3%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 10% of market cap
- Latest net cash -64% of market cap
Sales grew seasonally 22%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% 6% -15% -5% 22%
9,117 9,628 8,137 7,739 9,405
- Sales grew seasonally 22% in the third quarter to 9,405 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 9,675 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-84% -84% -84% -85% -83%
655 638 524 345 864
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -83% profit from 345 to 864 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 910 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,738 2,307 384 637 1,900
-426 -1,819 -261 869 -412
- Free cashflow went from 1,506 to 1,488 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -412 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 901 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -406 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1,056 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,539 2,470 2,545 1,990 2,435
35,741 34,940 35,396 31,640 31,585
- Cash increased 1,990 to 2,435 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 31,640 to 31,585 billion rupiah so net cash was up -29,650 to -29,150 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -991 billion rupiah equity payout -2,714 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -25,463 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,248 2,802 2,852 4,915 5,965
3,380 1,539 5 1,043 1,051
-3,120 15 45 1,020 -1
- SMGR cumulative capital improved 4,915 to 5,965 billion rupiah with + 1,051 & -1 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 9,670 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 45,559 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.62 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 4,224 billion rupiah (vs 3,604 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means an 11 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 39% higher target price 10,779 rupiah.
