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SMCB looking sharper as Cashflow doubles
Current 1,680 Target 2,348 +40%
February 23 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
-2%, -2%, -8%, 21%, 4%
Costs down (profit up)
Last 5 quarters
-86%, -85%, -83%, -86%, -84%
Cashflow doubled
Last 5 quarters Rpbn
161, -64, 248, 206, 465
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters Rptn
-12.6, -13.1, -12.9, -9.9, -10
Capital paid jumps, a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters Rpbn
-519, -448, 227, 380, 852
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
-2%, -2%, -8%, 21%, 4%
- Sales grew 4% in the fourth quarter to 3,139 billion rupiah vs our 3,227 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,347 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Costs down (profit up)
Last 5 quarters
-86%, -85%, -83%, -86%, -84%
- The cash cost ratio went from -86% to -84% profit from 210 to 262 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the latest -84% cost ratio to predict a 295 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Cashflow doubled
Last 5 quarters Rpbn
161, -64, 248, 206, 465
- Free cashflow doubled from 206 to 465 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -149 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 214 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -126 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 343 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters Rptn
-12.6, -13.1, -12.9, -9.9, -10
- Cash increased 244 to 291 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 10,101 to 10,310 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -9,857 to -10,019 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -276 billion rupiah equity payout -839 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -8,951 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid jumps, a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters Rpbn
-519, -448, 227, 380, 852
- SMCB capital paid from the last 24 quarters jumped 380 to 852 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -400 billion rupiah liabilities -15 billion rupiah equity payments & will be 1,737 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 15,150 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.72 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,114 billion rupiah which means an 14 X valuation. A generous 19 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price of 2,348 rupiah.