SMCB.jk Cashflow much higher
Current 1,435 Target 1,924 + 34%
12/27/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 31%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
21% 4% -7% -8% 31%
3,016 ; 3,139 ; 2,905 ; 2,677 ; 3,509 rupiah billion
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
14% 16% 13% 11% 15%
210 ; 262 ; 178 ; 83 ; 333 rupiah billion
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
341 ; 615 ; 78 ; 275 ; 1,413 rupiah billion
-135 ; -149 ; -110 ; -190 ; -296 rupiah billion
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
244 ; 291 ; 259 ; 128 ; 270 rupiah billion
10,101 ; 10,310 ; 10,689 ; 10,648 ; 10,145 rupiah billion
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
3,200 ; 400 ; 0 ; 0 ; 975 rupiah billion
-3,120 ; 15 ; 0 ; 216 ; 0 rupiah billion
Current 1,435 Target 1,924 + 34%
12/27/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 16%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 13% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 12% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -76% of market cap
Sales grew 31%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
21% 4% -7% -8% 31%
3,016 ; 3,139 ; 2,905 ; 2,677 ; 3,509 rupiah billion
- Sales grew 31% in the third quarter to 3,509 rupiah billion ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -2% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,759 rupiah billion in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
14% 16% 13% 11% 15%
210 ; 262 ; 178 ; 83 ; 333 rupiah billion
- The cash margin went from 11% to 15% profit from 83 to 333 rupiah billion in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 14% now.
- We use a 15% cash margin to predict a 361 rupiah billion profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
341 ; 615 ; 78 ; 275 ; 1,413 rupiah billion
-135 ; -149 ; -110 ; -190 ; -296 rupiah billion
- Free cashflow went from 85 to 1,116 rupiah billion in the third quarter with -296 rupiah billion investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 409 rupiah billion now.
- We assume -186 rupiah billion investment spending which with higher sales gives 362 rupiah billion average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
244 ; 291 ; 259 ; 128 ; 270 rupiah billion
10,101 ; 10,310 ; 10,689 ; 10,648 ; 10,145 rupiah billion
- Cash increased 128 to 270 rupiah billion in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 10,648 to 10,145 rupiah billion so net cash was up -10,520 to -9,875 rupiah billion .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 rupiah billion equity payout -1,446 rupiah billion liabilities net cash will be -8,429 rupiah billion in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
3,200 ; 400 ; 0 ; 0 ; 975 rupiah billion
-3,120 ; 15 ; 0 ; 216 ; 0 rupiah billion
- SMCB.jk paid 975 rupiah billion in the third quarter 975 rupiah billion liabilities 0 rupiah billion equity, will pay 1,446 rupiah billion this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 12,943 rupiah billion based on our forecasts it’s at 0.60 X assets with a 15 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,446 rupiah billion which means a 9 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 34% higher target price 1,924 rupiah.