SMCB a bit expensive
SMCB Current 1,585 Target 1,675 + 6%
Aug 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-2% 21% 4% -7% -8%
2,501 3,016 3,139 2,905 2,677
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-88% -86% -84% -87% -89%
93 210 262 178 83
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
307 341 615 78 275
-59 -135 -149 -110 -190
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
118 244 291 259 128
13,034 10,101 10,310 10,689 10,648
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
75 155 570 570 786
400 3,200 400 0 0
195 -3,120 15 0 216
Aug 13, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- Latest net cash -74% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-2% 21% 4% -7% -8%
2,501 3,016 3,139 2,905 2,677
- Sales declined seasonally -8% in the second quarter to 2,677 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,970 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-88% -86% -84% -87% -89%
93 210 262 178 83
- The cash cost ratio went from -87% to -89% profit from 178 to 83 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use the average -87% cost ratio to predict a 188 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
307 341 615 78 275
-59 -135 -149 -110 -190
- Free cashflow went from -31 to 85 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -190 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 181 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -150 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 222 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
118 244 291 259 128
13,034 10,101 10,310 10,689 10,648
- Cash declined 259 to 128 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 10,689 to 10,648 billion rupiah so net cash was down -10,430 to -10,520 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -889 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,456 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
75 155 570 570 786
400 3,200 400 0 0
195 -3,120 15 0 216
- SMCB cumulative capital improved 570 to 786 billion rupiah with 0 & + 216 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,674 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 14,296 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.66 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 889 billion rupiah which means a 16 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price 1,675 rupiah.
