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SMBR still rather dull with low cashflow
SMBR Current 464 Target 537 + 16%
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-29% -11% 25% 20% -23%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-82% -89% -85% -83% -86%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
27, -2, 50, 54, 14
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,994 -1,905 -1,895 -1,817 -1,854
Capital raised improved , a 16% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,700 -1,690 -1,681 -1,675 -1,661
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-29% -11% 25% 20% -23%
- Sales declined seasonally -23% in the first quarter to 416 billion rupiah -22% below) our 533 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 555 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-82% -89% -85% -83% -86%
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -86% profit from 35 to 10 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 29 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
27, -2, 50, 54, 14
- Free cashflow went from 54 to 14 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -4 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 29 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 58 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,994 -1,905 -1,895 -1,817 -1,854
- Cash increased 535 to 536 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,352 to 2,390 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -1,817 to -1,854 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -272 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,582 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 16% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,700 -1,690 -1,681 -1,675 -1,661
- SMBR 25 quarters capital raised improved -1,675 to -1,661 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with a -14 liabilities payment & will be -1,389 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,609 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.81 X assets with a 23 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 232 billion rupiah which means an 20 X valuation. A 23 X valuation gives a 16% higher target price 537 rupiah.