SMAR Cashflow jumps
SMAR Current 5,675 Target 8,390 + 48%
09/11/2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months sales growth + 26%
Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
31% 0% 5% 8% 12%
16,595 16,624 17,380 18,725 20,931
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-94% -92% -93% -92% -91%
792 1,033 912 1,016 1,662
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
796 1,144 -1,874 1,307 2,924
-264 -1,977 -253 -417 -213
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,335 2,717 2,106 2,522 2,912
24,587 25,927 27,277 26,992 25,644
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-4,007 -5,205 -6,700 -6,187 -3,785
1,658 -1,753 -1,508 189 1,818
-2 531 0 317 574
09/11/2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months sales growth + 26%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -139% of market cap
Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
31% 0% 5% 8% 12%
16,595 16,624 17,380 18,725 20,931
- Sales grew 12% in the third quarter to 20,931 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -6% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of -2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 19,213 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-94% -92% -93% -92% -91%
792 1,033 912 1,016 1,662
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -91% profit from 1,016 to 1,662 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use a -92% cost ratio to predict a 1,252 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
796 1,144 -1,874 1,307 2,924
-264 -1,977 -253 -417 -213
- Free cashflow went from 891 to 2,711 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -213 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 161 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -294 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 1,205 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,335 2,717 2,106 2,522 2,912
24,587 25,927 27,277 26,992 25,644
- Cash increased 2,522 to 2,912 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 26,992 to 25,644 billion rupiah so net cash was up -24,470 to -22,732 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -4,757 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -17,913 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-4,007 -5,205 -6,700 -6,187 -3,785
1,658 -1,753 -1,508 189 1,818
-2 531 0 317 574
- SMAR cumulative capital improved -6,187 to -3,785 billion rupiah with + 1,818 & + 574 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 972 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 16,300 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.38 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,819 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 48% higher target price 8,390 rupiah.
