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SMAR very dull as Cashflow more negative
SMAR Current 4,870 Target 7,251 + 49%
14 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 14% 31% 0% 5%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-93% -93% -94% -92% -93%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-530, 76, 552, -809, -2,114
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-20,554 -20,660 -22,252 -23,210 -25,171
Capital raised worsened , a 49% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,226 -5,684 -4,007 -5,205 -6,700
14 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 14% 31% 0% 5%
- Sales grew 5% in the first quarter to 17,380 billion rupiah slightly below our 17,455 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 18,985 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-93% -93% -94% -92% -93%
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -93% profit from 1,033 to 912 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the average -93% cost ratio to predict a 1,060 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-530, 76, 552, -809, -2,114
- Free cashflow went from -809 to -2,114 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -253 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -574 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -253 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,073 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-20,554 -20,660 -22,252 -23,210 -25,171
- Cash declined 2,717 to 2,106 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 25,927 to 27,277 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -23,210 to -25,171 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -833 billion rupiah equity payout -3,386 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -21,785 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a 49% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,226 -5,684 -4,007 -5,205 -6,700
- SMAR 29 quarter capital raised worsened -5,205 to -6,700 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 1,508 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be -2,481 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,988 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,165 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 49% higher target price 7,251 rupiah.