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Picture

SMAR Cashflow jumps

SMAR Current 5,675 Target 8,390 + 48%

09/11/2022
1 minute read

Last 12 months sales growth + 26%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -139% of market cap

Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
31% 0% 5% 8% 12%
16,595 16,624 17,380 18,725 20,931
  • Sales grew 12% in the third quarter to 20,931 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -6% now.
  • This brings the average to 6% growth.
  • We predict average growth of -2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 19,213 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-94% -92% -93% -92% -91%
792 1,033 912 1,016 1,662
  • The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -91% profit from 1,016 to 1,662 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
  • We use a -92% cost ratio to predict a 1,252 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
796 1,144 -1,874 1,307 2,924
-264 -1,977 -253 -417 -213
  • Free cashflow went from 891 to 2,711 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -213 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 161 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -294 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 1,205 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,335 2,717 2,106 2,522 2,912
24,587 25,927 27,277 26,992 25,644
  • Cash increased 2,522 to 2,912 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 26,992 to 25,644 billion rupiah so net cash was up -24,470 to -22,732 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -4,757 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -17,913 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-4,007 -5,205 -6,700 -6,187 -3,785
1,658 -1,753 -1,508 189 1,818
-2 531 0 317 574
  • SMAR cumulative capital improved -6,187 to -3,785 billion rupiah with + 1,818 & + 574 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 972 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 16,300 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.38 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 4,819 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 48% higher target price 8,390 rupiah.
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