SLIS Cashflow turned negative
SLIS.jk Current 266 Target 224 -16%
12/17/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -40%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-12% 26% -92% 2,070% -40%
101 ; 127 ; 10 ; 217 ; 130
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
7% 5% 81% 4% 9%
6 ; 5 ; 7 ; 8 ; 10
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
6 ; 3 ; 1 ; 9 ; -24
-1 ; 0 ; -0 ; -1 ; -3
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
6 ; 6 ; 10 ; 9 ; 11
181 ; 191 ; 187 ; 170 ; 187
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
4 ; 1 ; -3 ; 9 ; -29
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
12/17/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 29%
- Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -33% of market cap
Sales declined -40%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-12% 26% -92% 2,070% -40%
101 ; 127 ; 10 ; 217 ; 130
- Sales declined -40% in the third quarter to 130 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -100% now.
- This brings the average to 491% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 139 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
7% 5% 81% 4% 9%
6 ; 5 ; 7 ; 8 ; 10
- The cash margin went from 4% to 9% profit from 8 to 10 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 25% now.
- We use a 9% cash margin to predict a 11 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
6 ; 3 ; 1 ; 9 ; -24
-1 ; 0 ; -0 ; -1 ; -3
- Free cashflow went from 8 to -27 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -3 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 9 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
6 ; 6 ; 10 ; 9 ; 11
181 ; 191 ; 187 ; 170 ; 187
- Cash increased 9 to 11 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 170 to 187 billion rupiah so net cash was down -161 to -176 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -34 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -142 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
4 ; 1 ; -3 ; 9 ; -29
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
- SLIS.jk (raised) -29 billion rupiah in the third quarter -29 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 34 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 532 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.26 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 34 billion rupiah which means a 15 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 224 rupiah.