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Picture
SLB Cashflow less positive

Current 57 Target 70 + 21%

1/20/2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 27%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 1% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -27% of market cap

Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
6% -4% 14% 10% 5%
6,225 ; 5,962 ; 6,773 ; 7,477 ; 7,879 million dollars
  • Sales grew 5% in the fourth quarter to 7,879 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 2% now.
  • This brings the average to 6% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,277 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
19% 11% 20% 26% 21%
611 ; 520 ; 970 ; 920 ; 1,044 million dollars
  • The cash margin went from 26% to 21% profit from 920 to 1,044 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 19% now.
  • We use a 21% cash margin to predict a 1,223 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,932 ; 131 ; 408 ; 1,567 ; 1,614 million dollars
-634 ; -512 ; -527 ; -77 ; -759 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 1,490 to 855 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -759 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 461 million dollars now.
  • We assume -469 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,235 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
3,139 ; 2,649 ; 2,816 ; 2,180 ; 2,894 million dollars
26,225 ; 26,328 ; 26,202 ; 26,582 ; 25,146 million dollars
  • Cash increased 2,180 to 2,894 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 26,582 to 25,146 million dollars so net cash was up -24,402 to -22,252 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,875 million dollars equity payout -3,064 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -19,188 million dollars in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 381 ; -406 ; 38 ; -306 million dollars
97 ; 20 ; -274 ; 775 ; 197 million dollars
  • SLB (raised) -109 million dollars in the fourth quarter -306 million dollars liabilities 197 million dollars equity, will pay 4,939 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 81,364 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.90 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 4,939 million dollars which means a 16 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price 70 rupiah.
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