SIMP at 4X cashflow
SIMP Current 470 Target 922 + 96%
Aug 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined slightly
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-9% 21% 7% -27% -0%
4,258 5,168 5,534 4,041 4,032
Costs down profit down from non cash costs
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -64% -97% -84% -81%
164 1,611 -441 420 222
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
477 1,049 1,199 1,285 -11
-306 -294 -483 -250 -382
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,023 3,532 3,726 4,731 4,122
17,531 18,031 16,905 17,477 17,146
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,054 -806 -321 -286 -41
103 146 553 35 245
110 103 -68 0 0
Aug 13, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 29% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 14% of market cap
- Latest net cash -179% of market cap
Sales declined slightly
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-9% 21% 7% -27% -0%
4,258 5,168 5,534 4,041 4,032
- Sales declined slightly in the second quarter to 4,032 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,659 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down from non cash costs
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -64% -97% -84% -81%
164 1,611 -441 420 222
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -81% profit from 420 to 222 billion rupiah in the second quarter from higher non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use the average -81% cost ratio to predict a 501 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
477 1,049 1,199 1,285 -11
-306 -294 -483 -250 -382
- Free cashflow went from 1,035 to -393 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -382 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 528 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -316 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales, higher costs, gives a slightly lower 510 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,023 3,532 3,726 4,731 4,122
17,531 18,031 16,905 17,477 17,146
- Cash declined 4,731 to 4,122 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 17,477 to 17,146 billion rupiah so net cash was down -12,746 to -13,024 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -185 billion rupiah equity payout -1,856 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -10,304 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,054 -806 -321 -286 -41
103 146 553 35 245
110 103 -68 0 0
- SIMP cumulative capital improved -286 to -41 billion rupiah with + 245 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will turn positive 2,000 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,286 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at only 0.20 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,041 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 96% higher target price 922 rupiah.
