SIMP at 3X cashflow
SIMP.jk Current 416 Target 1,126 + 171%
12/1/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
21% 7% -27% -0% 6%
5,168 5,534 4,041 4,032 4,262
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
41% 4% 20% 10% 19%
1,611 -441 420 222 520
Cashflow jumps
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,049 1,199 1,285 -11 1,778
-294 -483 -250 -382 -334
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
3,532 3,726 4,731 4,122 4,724
17,381 16,193 16,809 16,282 16,173
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
146 553 35 245 571
103 -68 0 0 342
12/1/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -18%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 43% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 26% of market cap
- Latest net cash -178% of market cap
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
21% 7% -27% -0% 6%
5,168 5,534 4,041 4,032 4,262
- Sales grew 6% in the third quarter to 4,262 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to -4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,648 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
41% 4% 20% 10% 19%
1,611 -441 420 222 520
- The cash margin went from 10% to 19% profit from 222 to 520 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 13% now.
- We use a 19% cash margin to predict a 612 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow jumps
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,049 1,199 1,285 -11 1,778
-294 -483 -250 -382 -334
- Free cashflow went from -393 to 1,444 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -334 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 700 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -334 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 546 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
3,532 3,726 4,731 4,122 4,724
17,381 16,193 16,809 16,282 16,173
- Cash increased 4,122 to 4,724 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 16,282 to 16,173 billion rupiah so net cash was up -12,160 to -11,449 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -2,182 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -9,267 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
146 553 35 245 571
103 -68 0 0 342
- SIMP.jk paid 914 billion rupiah in the third quarter 571 billion rupiah liabilities 342 billion rupiah equity , will pay 2,182 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 6,449 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.17 X assets with a 15 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,182 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 171% higher target price 1,126 rupiah.