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SIMP looking very SHARP at only 2X forecasts Cashflow
SIMP Current 496 Target 1,112 +124%
March 1 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters
21% 13% -9% 21% 7%
Costs up profit down on non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-78% -90% -86% -64% -97%
Cashflow slightly lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
70, 653, 183, 767, 727
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,478 -14,422 -14,123 -13,849 -12,467
Capital raised improved, cheap, a 124% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,314 -1,267 -1,054 -806 -321
March 1 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters
21% 13% -9% 21% 7%
- Sales grew 7% in the fourth quarter to 5,534 billion rupiah below our 5,736 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,154 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down on non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-78% -90% -86% -64% -97%
- The cash cost ratio went from -64% to -97% profit slumped from 1,611 to -441 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use a lower -78% cost ratio to predict a 985 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022 .
Cashflow slightly lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
70, 653, 183, 767, 727
- Free cashflow was slightly lower from 767 to 727 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with higher -483 billion rupiah investment spending .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 583 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -388 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 952 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022 .
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,478 -14,422 -14,123 -13,849 -12,467
- Cash increased 3,532 to 3,726 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 17,381 to 16,193 billion rupiah so net cash improved -13,849 to -12,467 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,074 billion rupiah equity payout -2,374 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -10,093 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved, cheap, a 124% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,314 -1,267 -1,054 -806 -321
- SIMP 28 quarters capital raised improved -806 to -321 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -553 billion rupiah liabilities payment 68 billion rupiah new equity & will be positive 3,127 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,689 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.21 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 14% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,448 billion rupiah which means a cheap 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 124% higher target price of 1,112 rupiah.