SILO cashflow negative again
SILO Current 1,040 Target 875 -16%
Aug 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
43% -8% -11% -1% -2%
2,727 2,505 2,238 2,222 2,188
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-84% -81% -82% -85% -84%
164 239 148 102 111
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
141 175 1,002 121 247
-92 -135 -239 -153 -461
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
850 973 1,914 1,716 1,279
2,592 2,553 2,780 2,860 2,627
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,668 -3,752 -3,931 -3,764 -3,540
116 -84 -190 173 -29
210 0 11 -6 253
Aug 29, 2022
1 minute read
- SILO last 12 months sales growth negative -20%
- SILO last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- SILO last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- SILO latest net cash -10% of market cap
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
43% -8% -11% -1% -2%
2,727 2,505 2,238 2,222 2,188
- Sales declined -2% in the second quarter to 2,188 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to -5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,276 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-84% -81% -82% -85% -84%
164 239 148 102 111
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -84% profit from 102 to 111 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use a -85% cost ratio to predict a 110 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
141 175 1,002 121 247
-92 -135 -239 -153 -461
- Free cashflow went negative from -32 to -214 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -461 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 139 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -147 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 89 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
850 973 1,914 1,716 1,279
2,592 2,553 2,780 2,860 2,627
- Cash declined 1,716 to 1,279 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,860 to 2,627 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,144 to -1,348 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -354 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -564 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,668 -3,752 -3,931 -3,764 -3,540
116 -84 -190 173 -29
210 0 11 -6 253
- SILO cumulative capital improved -3,764 to -3,540 billion rupiah with -29 & + 253 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -3,186 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,466 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.76 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 354 billion rupiah (vs 557 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 38 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 875 rupiah.
