SILO cashflow less negative
SILO Current 1,100 Target 1,017 -8%
11/6/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-8% -11% -1% -2% 15%
2,505 2,238 2,222 2,188 2,522
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-81% -82% -85% -84% -79%
239 148 102 111 244
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
175 1,002 121 247 385
-135 -239 -153 -461 -504
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
973 1,914 1,716 1,279 1,207
2,553 2,780 2,860 2,627 2,568
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3,752 -3,931 -3,764 -3,540 -3,584
-84 -190 173 -29 -43
0 11 -6 253 -2
11/6/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 1%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -10% of market cap
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-8% -11% -1% -2% 15%
2,505 2,238 2,222 2,188 2,522
- Sales grew 15% in the third quarter to 2,522 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,649 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-81% -82% -85% -84% -79%
239 148 102 111 244
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -79% profit from 111 to 244 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use a -81% cost ratio to predict a 225 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
175 1,002 121 247 385
-135 -239 -153 -461 -504
- Free cashflow went from -214 to -119 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -504 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 100 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -242 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives positive 103 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
973 1,914 1,716 1,279 1,207
2,553 2,780 2,860 2,627 2,568
- Cash declined 1,279 to 1,207 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,627 to 2,568 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,348 to -1,361 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -412 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -304 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3,752 -3,931 -3,764 -3,540 -3,584
-84 -190 173 -29 -43
0 11 -6 253 -2
- SILO cumulative capital worsened -3,540 to -3,584 billion rupiah with -43 & -2 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be -3,172 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 14,243 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.74 X assets with a 20 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 412 billion rupiah (vs 398 billion rupiah the last 12m which means a 35 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -8% lower target price 1,017 rupiah.
