Sharpfokus Premium – March 2025
📌 Economic & Market Overview
• US Regulations at a Record High: The number of regulatory pages in the US hit a new record of 110,000 in 2024, a major challenge for economic growth. Historically, reducing regulation has been linked to stronger GDP expansion (as seen in the 1980s and 2017). The question now is whether the next administration will reverse this trend.
• Indonesian Car Sales Up, But Still Weak:
• February sales rose 2% YoY, showing early signs of stabilization.
• 12-month total is still in a downtrend, currently below 900,000 units, down 10% from 2020 levels.
• Compared to US (-3%) and UK (+6%) vs 2020, Indonesia still lags significantly.
• Encouraging consumer spending remains a key challenge.
• Inflation Slows Further: February CPI growth was just 0.76% YoY, reflecting weak domestic demand.
• Palm Oil Inventories Tighten: Malaysian February palm oil stockpiles fell well below last year and the 5-year average, signaling a supply squeeze. While prices haven’t moved yet, the fundamentals point to future strength.
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📊 Market & Financial Data (132 Companies Reported So Far)
Medians for Reported Companies (132 Results)
• Sales Growth: 6%, matching GDP growth (in line with consumer trends).
• Median CFROA: 3%, a slight decline over the last three years (-1%).
• Median Market Valuation: 5%, meaning valuations remain above cashflow returns.
• Conclusion: CFROA still trails market valuations, indicating many companies are priced for growth they haven’t yet delivered.
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🔝 Top Stocks: CFROA vs Market Value
How We Scored the Rankings
To identify stocks with the biggest cashflow advantage, we applied:
✅ 70% weight to CFROA vs Market Value (main indicator)
✅ 20% weight to 3-year average CFROA (long-term strength)
✅ 10% weight to latest CFROA (recent trend)
📌 Top 15 Stocks by Adjusted Score:
1️⃣ ADRO.jk – 44.3
2️⃣ AADI.jk – 21.1
3️⃣ TAPG.jk – 19.3
4️⃣ NISP.jk – 18.4
5️⃣ CASS.jk – 17.5
6️⃣ ESSA.jk – 17.3
7️⃣ LPPF.jk – 13.9
8️⃣ ITMG.jk – 12.6
9️⃣ ASGR.jk – 11.6
🔟 TOBA.jk – 9.9
1️⃣1️⃣ PANS.jk – 8.1
1️⃣2️⃣ HERO.jk – 7.0
1️⃣3️⃣ IDPR.jk – 5.9
1️⃣4️⃣ AALI.jk – 5.8
1️⃣5️⃣ BWPT.jk – 5.7
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📌 Key Takeaways
✅ ADRO.jk remains the top-ranked company, with a massive CFROA advantage vs Market Value.
✅ AADI.jk, TAPG.jk, NISP.jk, and CASS.jk round out the Top 5, meaning strong cashflow stocks still underpriced by market valuations.
✅ Median CFROA remains below market value, showing that cashflow returns have not yet caught up to valuations.
✅ Indonesian economy continues to show weak consumer demand, but palm oil tightening suggests a future opportunity in commodities.
⸻
📌 For information purposes only, not investment advice.
🚀 Next month, we will update the rankings as more full-year results come in!
📌 Economic & Market Overview
• US Regulations at a Record High: The number of regulatory pages in the US hit a new record of 110,000 in 2024, a major challenge for economic growth. Historically, reducing regulation has been linked to stronger GDP expansion (as seen in the 1980s and 2017). The question now is whether the next administration will reverse this trend.
• Indonesian Car Sales Up, But Still Weak:
• February sales rose 2% YoY, showing early signs of stabilization.
• 12-month total is still in a downtrend, currently below 900,000 units, down 10% from 2020 levels.
• Compared to US (-3%) and UK (+6%) vs 2020, Indonesia still lags significantly.
• Encouraging consumer spending remains a key challenge.
• Inflation Slows Further: February CPI growth was just 0.76% YoY, reflecting weak domestic demand.
• Palm Oil Inventories Tighten: Malaysian February palm oil stockpiles fell well below last year and the 5-year average, signaling a supply squeeze. While prices haven’t moved yet, the fundamentals point to future strength.
⸻
📊 Market & Financial Data (132 Companies Reported So Far)
Medians for Reported Companies (132 Results)
• Sales Growth: 6%, matching GDP growth (in line with consumer trends).
• Median CFROA: 3%, a slight decline over the last three years (-1%).
• Median Market Valuation: 5%, meaning valuations remain above cashflow returns.
• Conclusion: CFROA still trails market valuations, indicating many companies are priced for growth they haven’t yet delivered.
⸻
🔝 Top Stocks: CFROA vs Market Value
How We Scored the Rankings
To identify stocks with the biggest cashflow advantage, we applied:
✅ 70% weight to CFROA vs Market Value (main indicator)
✅ 20% weight to 3-year average CFROA (long-term strength)
✅ 10% weight to latest CFROA (recent trend)
📌 Top 15 Stocks by Adjusted Score:
1️⃣ ADRO.jk – 44.3
2️⃣ AADI.jk – 21.1
3️⃣ TAPG.jk – 19.3
4️⃣ NISP.jk – 18.4
5️⃣ CASS.jk – 17.5
6️⃣ ESSA.jk – 17.3
7️⃣ LPPF.jk – 13.9
8️⃣ ITMG.jk – 12.6
9️⃣ ASGR.jk – 11.6
🔟 TOBA.jk – 9.9
1️⃣1️⃣ PANS.jk – 8.1
1️⃣2️⃣ HERO.jk – 7.0
1️⃣3️⃣ IDPR.jk – 5.9
1️⃣4️⃣ AALI.jk – 5.8
1️⃣5️⃣ BWPT.jk – 5.7
⸻
📌 Key Takeaways
✅ ADRO.jk remains the top-ranked company, with a massive CFROA advantage vs Market Value.
✅ AADI.jk, TAPG.jk, NISP.jk, and CASS.jk round out the Top 5, meaning strong cashflow stocks still underpriced by market valuations.
✅ Median CFROA remains below market value, showing that cashflow returns have not yet caught up to valuations.
✅ Indonesian economy continues to show weak consumer demand, but palm oil tightening suggests a future opportunity in commodities.
⸻
📌 For information purposes only, not investment advice.
🚀 Next month, we will update the rankings as more full-year results come in!