SGRO a big dividend!
SGRO Current 2,150 Target 5,529 + 157%
Jul 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,337 1,239 1,317 1,259 1,365
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-80% -83% -71% -73% -72%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
195 344 109 137 -41
Last 12 months change in net cash + 2%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,015 -5,353 -4,657 -4,595 -4,928
Last 12 months capital + 17% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-594 -389 -203 -199 87
Jul 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,337 1,239 1,317 1,259 1,365
- Sales grew 8% in the second quarter to 1,365 billion rupiah -4% below our 1,423 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,486 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-80% -83% -71% -73% -72%
- The cash cost ratio went from -73% to -72% profit from 249 to 292 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use the latest -72% cost ratio to predict a 326 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
195 344 109 137 -41
- Free cashflow went from 137 to -41 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -127 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 137 billion rupiah + 14% of market cap.
- We assume -131 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 279 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Last 12 months change in net cash + 2%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,015 -5,353 -4,657 -4,595 -4,928
- Cash declined 630 to 302 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,225 to 5,230 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -4,595 to -4,928 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -256 billion rupiah equity payout -861 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -4,067 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Last 12 months capital + 17% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-594 -389 -203 -199 87
- SGRO 30 quarter capital turned positive -199 to 87 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 39 billion rupiah from liabilities + 247 billion rupiah from equity & will be 1,205 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,910 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.38 X assets with an 8 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,117 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 157% higher target price 5,529 rupiah.
