SGRO 8% yield forecast
SGRO Current 2,230 Target 3,829 + 72%
11/7/22
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 6% -4% 8% -6%
1,239 1,317 1,259 1,365 1,287
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-83% -71% -73% -72% -72%
125 294 249 292 268
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
381 294 268 86 160
-37 -185 -131 -127 -28
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
121 497 630 302 415
5,474 5,154 5,225 5,230 5,240
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-389 -203 -199 87 107
204 184 2 39 29
1 2 1 247 0
11/7/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 4%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 12% of market cap
- Latest net cash -119% of market cap
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 6% -4% 8% -6%
1,239 1,317 1,259 1,365 1,287
- Sales declined -6% in the third quarter to 1,287 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 4% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,377 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-83% -71% -73% -72% -72%
125 294 249 292 268
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -72% profit declined from 292 to 268 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -72% now.
- We use a -72% cost ratio to predict a 294 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
381 294 268 86 160
-37 -185 -131 -127 -28
- Free cashflow went from -41 to 132 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -28 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 84 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -28 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 348 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
121 497 630 302 415
5,474 5,154 5,225 5,230 5,240
- Cash increased 302 to 415 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,230 to 5,240 billion rupiah so net cash was up -4,928 to -4,825 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -341 billion rupiah equity payout -972 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,773 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-389 -203 -199 87 107
204 184 2 39 29
1 2 1 247 0
- SGRO cumulative capital improved 87 to 107 billion rupiah with + 29 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 1,420 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,056 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.40 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,393 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 72% higher target price 3,829 rupiah.
