SCMA cashflow more negative
SCMA Current 248 Target 250 + 1%
Aug 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
10% -6% 7% -0% 6%
1,543 1,444 1,540 1,535 1,629
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-71% -73% -80% -80% -78%
399 339 251 262 304
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
77 448 242 -327 -108
18 -50 -168 -309 -819
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
737 765 3,232 2,542 2,289
2,260 1,991 2,452 2,393 2,488
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
7,758 8,127 5,743 5,805 5,149
150 363 -201 61 0
2 6 -2,182 1 -656
Aug 12, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -17% of market cap
- Latest net cash -1% of market cap
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
10% -6% 7% -0% 6%
1,543 1,444 1,540 1,535 1,629
- Sales grew 6% in the second quarter to 1,629 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 4% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,737 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-71% -73% -80% -80% -78%
399 339 251 262 304
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -78% profit from 262 to 304 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the average -78% cost ratio to predict a 334 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
77 448 242 -327 -108
18 -50 -168 -309 -819
- Free cashflow went from -636 to -927 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -819 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -273 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -336 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 49 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
737 765 3,232 2,542 2,289
2,260 1,991 2,452 2,393 2,488
- Cash declined 2,542 to 2,289 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,393 to 2,488 billion rupiah so net cash was down 149 to -199 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -108 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -91 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
7,758 8,127 5,743 5,805 5,149
150 363 -201 61 0
2 6 -2,182 1 -656
- SCMA cumulative capital worsened 5,805 to 5,149 billion rupiah with + 0 & -656 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 5,257 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 15,675 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.28 X assets with a 39 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 197 billion rupiah which means a 79 X valuation. A 80 X valuation gives a 1% higher target price 250 rupiah.
