SCMA sales up
SCMA.jk Current 260 Target 234 -10%
11/21/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-6% 7% -0% 6% 10%
1,444 1,540 1,535 1,629 1,788
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-73% -77% -79% -78% -87%
339 251 262 304 176
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
448 242 -327 -108 -120
-50 -168 -309 -819 366
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
765 3,232 2,542 2,289 2,431
1,991 2,452 2,393 2,488 2,518
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
363 -201 61 0 0
6 -2,182 1 -656 151
11/21/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 24%
- Last 12 months cash flow -8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -17% of market cap
- Latest net cash -1% of market cap
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-6% 7% -0% 6% 10%
1,444 1,540 1,535 1,629 1,788
- Sales grew 10% in the third quarter to 1,788 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,031 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-73% -77% -79% -78% -87%
339 251 262 304 176
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -87% profit from 304 to 176 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use a -81% cost ratio to predict a 341 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
448 242 -327 -108 -120
-50 -168 -309 -819 366
- Free cashflow went from -927 to 246 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 366 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -311 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -226 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 148 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
765 3,232 2,542 2,289 2,431
1,991 2,452 2,393 2,488 2,518
- Cash increased 2,289 to 2,431 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,488 to 2,518 billion rupiah so net cash was up -199 to -87 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -129 billion rupiah equity payout -463 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 376 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
363 -201 61 0 0
6 -2,182 1 -656 151
- SCMA.jk paid 151 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 151 billion rupiah equity & will pay 591 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 16,434 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.36 X assets with a 23 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 591 billion rupiah which means a 28 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 234 rupiah.
