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SCMA dull with negative cashflow but a 7% yield forecast
SCMA Current 226 Target 514 + 128%
May 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -0.3%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 10% -6% 7% -0%
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-72% -71% -73% -80% -80%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
499, 97, 399, 75, -635
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,854, -1,523, -1,226, 780, 149
Capital paid improved , a 128% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7,340, 7,492, 7,861, 5,478, 5,539
May 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -0.3%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 10% -6% 7% -0%
- Sales declined -0.3% in the first quarter to 1,535 billion rupiah just below our 1,540 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,795 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-72% -71% -73% -80% -80%
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -80% profit increased from 251 to 262 billion rupiah in the first quarter on lower non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use a lower -74% cost ratio to predict a 413 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
499, 97, 399, 75, -635
- Free cashflow went negative from 75 to -635 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -309 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -16 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -50 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 414 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,854, -1,523, -1,226, 780, 149
- Cash declined 3,232 to 2,542 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,452 to 2,393 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 780 to 149 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1056 billion rupiah equity payout -444 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 719 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 128% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7,340, 7,492, 7,861, 5,478, 5,539
- SCMA 29 quarter capital paid improved 5,478 to 5,539 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -61 billion rupiah liabilities -1 billion rupiah equity payments & will be 7,039 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 14,285 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.39 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,626 billion rupiah which means an 9 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 128% higher target price 514 rupiah.