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Picture
SBUX Cashflow positive

Current 98 Target 95 -3%

12/26/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 3%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -30% of market cap
​
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
9% -1% -5% 7% 3%
8,147 ; 8,050 ; 7,636 ; 8,150 ; 8,414 million dollars
  • Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 8,414 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -1% now.
  • This brings the average to 1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 0% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,483 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
23% 21% 19% 22% 19%
1,764 ; 816 ; 675 ; 914 ; 878 million dollars
  • The cash margin went from 22% to 19% profit from 914 to 878 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 20% now.
  • We use a 20% cash margin to predict a 921 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,521 ; 1,871 ; 162 ; 1,265 ; 1,099 million dollars
667 ; -401 ; -480 ; -495 ; -770 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 770 to 329 million dollars in the third quarter with -770 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 563 million dollars now.
  • We assume -537 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,140 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
6,456 ; 3,969 ; 5,015 ; 3,178 ; 2,818 million dollars
36,707 ; 37,284 ; 37,783 ; 36,815 ; 36,677 million dollars
  • Cash declined 3,178 to 2,818 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 36,815 to 36,677 million dollars so net cash was down -33,637 to -33,859 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,056 million dollars equity payout -3,504 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -30,355 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-50 ; -50 ; -1,302 ; 654 ; 35 million dollars
1,042 ; 1,042 ; 912 ; 3,817 ; 530 million dollars
  • SBUX paid 565 million dollars in the third quarter 35 million dollars liabilities 530 million dollars equity, will pay 4,560 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 112,794 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 4.19 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 4,560 million dollars which means a 25 X valuation. A 24 X valuation gives a -3% lower target price 95 rupiah.
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