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SBUX, less sharp as cashflow turns negative
SBUX Current 74 Target 107 + 44%
May 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 12% 9% -1% -5%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-78% -79% -77% -79% -81%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
578 1,341 2,188 1,470 -318
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-32,139 -31,518 -30,251 -33,315 -34,033
Capital paid worsened , a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
19,050 19,541 20,024 23,993 23,733
May 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 12% 9% -1% -5%
- Sales declined -5% in the first quarter to 7,636 million dollars -5% below our 8,050 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,261 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-78% -79% -77% -79% -81%
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -81% profit from 176 to 264 million dollars on no cash gains in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the average -79% cost ratio to predict a 946 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
578 1,341 2,188 1,470 -318
- Free cashflow went negative from 1,470 to -318 million dollars in the first quarter with -480 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,170 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -480 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,275 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-32,139 -31,518 -30,251 -33,315 -34,033
- Cash declined 3,969 to 3,750 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 37,284 to 37,783 million dollars so net cash worsened -33,315 to -34,033 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,841 million dollars equity payout -3,159 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -30,874 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
19,050 19,541 20,024 23,993 23,733
- SBUX 29 quarter capital paid worsened 23,993 to 23,733 million dollars in the first quarter with 1,302 million dollars new liabilities, a -912 million dollars equity payment but will be 1,978 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 86,698 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.1 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 5,000 million dollars which means a 17 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 44% higher target price 107 rupiah.