SBUX strong sales, margins
SBUX Current 74 Target 112 + 50%
Aug 5, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
Latest net cash -34% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
7,497 8,147 8,050 7,636 8,150
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-79% -77% -79% -81% -78%
1,154 1,764 816 675 914
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,341 2,188 1,470 -318 770
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
4,753 6,456 3,969 5,015 3,178
36,271 36,707 37,284 37,783 36,815
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
19,541 20,024 23,993 23,733 25,227
-200 -1,302 804
4,169 912 690
Aug 5, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
Latest net cash -34% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
7,497 8,147 8,050 7,636 8,150
- Sales grew 7% in the second quarter to 8,150 million dollars our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 9,238 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-79% -77% -79% -81% -78%
1,154 1,764 816 675 914
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -78% profit from 675 to 914 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the latest -78% cost ratio to predict a 1,150 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,341 2,188 1,470 -318 770
- Free cashflow went from -318 to 770 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,027 million dollars now.
- We assume -401 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,506 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
4,753 6,456 3,969 5,015 3,178
36,271 36,707 37,284 37,783 36,815
- Cash declined 5,015 to 3,178 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 37,783 to 36,815 million dollars so net cash was down -32,768 to -33,637 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -4,258 million dollars equity payout -1,766 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -31,871 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
19,541 20,024 23,993 23,733 25,227
-200 -1,302 804
4,169 912 690
- SBUX cumulative capital improved 23,733 to 25,227 million dollars with + 804 & + 690 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 31,251 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 100,090 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.8 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 6,024 million dollars which means a 17 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 50% higher target price 112 dollars.
