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SAME dull with more negative cashflow
SAME Current 350 Target 240 -31%
May 16, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 23%
Last 5 quarters
33% 0% 150% -48% 23%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-72% -63% -80% -84% -83%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1 -16 -415 -485 -547
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-139 -108 0 108 -105
Capital raised worsened , a -31% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,834 -802 -3,170 -3,155 -3,250
May 16, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 23%
Last 5 quarters
33% 0% 150% -48% 23%
- Sales jumped 23% in the first quarter to 350 billion rupiah 17% above our 299 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 31% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 393 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-72% -63% -80% -84% -83%
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -83% profit from 3 to 9 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the average -78% cost ratio to predict a 38 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1 -16 -415 -485 -547
- Free cashflow went from -485 to -547 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -227 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -366 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -144 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -55 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-139 -108 0 108 -105
- Cash declined 625 to 461 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 517 to 566 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 108 to -105 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 232 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -338 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a -31% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,834 -802 -3,170 -3,155 -3,250
- SAME 25 quarter capital raised worsened -3,155 to -3,250 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 95 billion rupiah new liabilities & will be -3,483 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,995 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.2 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 342 billion rupiah which means an 18 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a -31% lower target price 240 rupiah.