SAME cashflow tuns positive
SAME Current 280 Target 329 + 17%
14/11/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 32%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
150% -48% 23% -17% 32%
549 285 350 288 380
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-80% -84% -83% -94% -81%
47 3 9 -32 21
Cashflow turned positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
159 142 -33 8 64
-1,754 -422 -227 -758 -27
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
918 625 351 265 245
306 517 566 1,198 1,168
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3,175 -3,163 -3,258 -3,922 -3,864
131 22 -95 -664 42
-2,500 -9 0 0 16
14/11/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -31%
- Last 12 months cash flow -26% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -14% of market cap
- Latest net cash -19% of market cap
Sales grew 32%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
150% -48% 23% -17% 32%
549 285 350 288 380
- Sales grew 32% in the third quarter to 380 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -8% now.
- This brings the average to -3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 390 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-80% -84% -83% -94% -81%
47 3 9 -32 21
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -81% profit from -32 to 21 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 15 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow turned positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
159 142 -33 8 64
-1,754 -422 -227 -758 -27
- Free cashflow turned positive from -750 to 37 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -27 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -313 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -27 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 37 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
918 625 351 265 245
306 517 566 1,198 1,168
- Cash declined 265 to 245 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,198 to 1,168 billion rupiah so net cash was up -933 to -923 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -150 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -773 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3,175 -3,163 -3,258 -3,922 -3,864
131 22 -95 -664 42
-2,500 -9 0 0 16
- SAME cumulative capital improved -3,922 to -3,864 billion rupiah with + 42 & + 16 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -3,715 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,796 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.0 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 256 billion rupiah which means a 19 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 329 rupiah.
