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SAFE looking sharp at only 3X forecast cashflow
SAFE Current 218 Target 345 + 58%
Jun 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 42%
Last 5 quarters
10% 7% -16% -5% 42%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -80% -83% -77% -82%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
9.1, 3.6, 16.6, 5.5, 7.6
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-381 -370 -362 -356 -350
Capital paid flat a 58% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0
Jun 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 42%
Last 5 quarters
10% 7% -16% -5% 42%
- Sales grew 42% in the first quarter to 50.9 billion rupiah 24% above our 41.1 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 59 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -80% -83% -77% -82%
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -82% profit from 0.6 to 1.6 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use the latest -82% cost ratio to predict a 3.0 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
9.1, 3.6, 16.6, 5.5, 7.6
- Free cashflow went from 5.5 to 7.6 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -0.7 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 8.3 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -0.7 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 10 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-381 -370 -362 -356 -350
- Cash increased 10.6 to 12.4 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 366.8 to 362.6 billion rupiah so net cash improved -356 to -350 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -4 billion rupiah equity payout -35 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -315.2 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat a 58% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0
- SAFE 13 quarter capital paid was flat at 7.0 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will jump to 45.6 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 134.1 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.37 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 39 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 58% higher target price 345 rupiah.