SAFE 2X forecast cashflow
SAFE Current 202 Target 346 + 72%
11/15/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-16% -5% 42% 27% -3%
38 36 51 65 63
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-83% -77% -82% -85% -86%
-1 1 2 3 1
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
8 6 8 12 12
8 -0 -1 -1 3
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
11 11 12 8 6
374 367 363 346 336
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
31 37 43 59 76
11 6 6 16 17
0 0 0 0 0
11/15/2022
1 minute read
- SAFE last 12 months sales growth + 67%
- SAFE last 12 months cash flow + 32% of market cap
- SAFE last 12 months Capital + 36% of market cap
- SAFE latest net cash -266% of market cap
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-16% -5% 42% 27% -3%
38 36 51 65 63
- Sales declined -3% in the third quarter to 63 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 87 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-83% -77% -82% -85% -86%
-1 1 2 3 1
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -86% profit from 3 to 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use a -82% cost ratio to predict a 7.8 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
8 6 8 12 12
8 -0 -1 -1 3
- Free cashflow went from 11 to 16 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 3 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 13 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
11 11 12 8 6
374 367 363 346 336
- Cash declined 8 to 6 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 346 to 336 billion rupiah so net cash was up -338 to -330 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -53 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -277.0 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
31 37 43 59 76
11 6 6 16 17
0 0 0 0 0
- SAFE cumulative capital improved 59 to 76 billion rupiah with + 17 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 138.3 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 124.3 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.25 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 53 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 72% higher target price 346 rupiah.
