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SAFE, a 34% higher target price
Current 228 Target 305 +34%
December 11th 2021
1 minute read
Sales declined -16%
Costs 3 points higher, but loss to turn back to profit
Cashflow jumped on investment gains, forecast to stay higher
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Valuation, cheap to Cashflow, a 34% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales declined -16%
- Sales declined -16% in the third quarter to 37.8 billion rupiah vs our 44.7 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 45 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 3 points higher, but loss to turn back to profit
- The cash cost ratio was at -83% in the third quarter giving a negative -0.9 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use -81% cost ratio to predict a 1.4 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow jumped on investment gains, forecast to stay higher
- Free cashflow jumped to 17 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 8.4 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 9 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash doubled from 6.0 to 11.3 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 376.2 to 373.6 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -370.2 to -362.4 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -329.2 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, cheap to Cashflow, a 34% higher target price
- SAFE capital from the last 39 quarters improved to -330 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -11.4 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -295.8 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 140.3 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.28 X assets with a 14.3 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 34.2 billion rupiah which means an 4 X valuation. A 5.5 X valuation gives a 34% higher target price of 305 rupiah.