ROTI a bit pricey
ROTI Current 1,265 Target 1,585 + 25%
10/31/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
14% -3% 7% -3% 21%
878 853 909 883 1,070
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-85% -86% -85% -89% -84%
88 72 88 49 126
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
236 121 184 41 224
-40 -36 -41 -33 -64
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
861 759 699 541 672
1,306 1,342 1,422 1,582 1,664
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-273 -88 115 280 310
0 0 0 -200 0
87 185 202 365 29
10/31/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months Sales growth + 22%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 8% of market cap
- Latest net cash -14% of market cap
Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
14% -3% 7% -3% 21%
878 853 909 883 1,070
- Sales grew 21% in the third quarter to 1,070 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,124 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-85% -86% -85% -89% -84%
88 72 88 49 126
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -84% profit from 49 to 126 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use a -86% cost ratio to predict a 110 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
236 121 184 41 224
-40 -36 -41 -33 -64
- Free cashflow went from 8 to 160 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -64 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 99 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -46 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 108 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
861 759 699 541 672
1,306 1,342 1,422 1,582 1,664
- Cash increased 541 to 672 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,582 to 1,664 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,041 to -992 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -128 billion rupiah equity payout -303 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -689 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-273 -88 115 280 310
0 0 0 -200 0
87 185 202 365 29
- ROTI cumulative capital improved 280 to 310 billion rupiah with 0 & + 29 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 741 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,236 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.73 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 432 billion rupiah which means a 17 X valuation. A 21 X valuation gives a 25% higher target price 1,585 rupiah.
