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ROTI a bit dull as sales fall
ROTI Current 1,305 Target 1,470 +13%
March 8 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
1% 2% -2% 14% -3%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -87% -86% -85% -86%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
80, 128, 10, 196, 85
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-745 -125 -522 -445 -583
Capital raised improved & will turn positive, a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-758 -758 -360 -273 -88
March 8 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
1% 2% -2% 14% -3%
- Sales declined -3% in the fourth quarter to 853 billion rupiah -9% below our 939 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 941 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -87% -86% -85% -86%
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -86% profit from 88 to 72 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 87 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
80, 128, 10, 196, 85
- Free cashflow went from 196 to 85 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -36 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 105 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -36 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 92 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-745 -125 -522 -445 -583
- Cash declined 861 to 759 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased 1,306 to 1,342 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -445 to -583 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -164 billion rupiah equity payout -202 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -381 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved & will turn positive, a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-758 -758 -360 -273 -88
- ROTI 24 quarters of capital raised improved -273 to -88 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -185 billion rupiah equity payout & will be 262 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,073 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.94 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 350 billion rupiah which means an 23 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price of 1,470 rupiah.