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ROTI a bit dull as sales fall

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ROTI Current 1,305 Target 1,470 +13%

March 8 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
1% 2% -2% 14% -3%
  • Sales declined -3% in the fourth quarter to 853 billion rupiah -9% below our 939 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of another 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 941 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -87% -86% -85% -86%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -86% profit from 88 to 72 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
  • We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 87 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
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Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
80, 128, 10, 196, 85
  • Free cashflow went from 196 to 85 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -36 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 105 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -36 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 92 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-745 -125 -522 -445 -583
  • Cash declined 861 to 759 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
  • Liabilities increased 1,306 to 1,342 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -445 to -583 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -164 billion rupiah equity payout -202 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -381 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital raised improved & will turn positive, a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-758 -758 -360 -273 -88
  • ROTI 24 quarters of capital raised improved -273 to -88 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -185 billion rupiah equity payout & will be 262 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 8,073 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.94 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 350 billion rupiah which means an 23 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price of 1,470 rupiah.
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