ROTI a bit pricey
ROTI Current 1,285 Target 1,697 + 32%
Aug 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-2% 14% -3% 7% -3%
770 878 853 909 883
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -85% -86% -85% -89%
65 88 72 88 49
Cashflow seasonally lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
56 236 121 184 41
-45 -40 -36 -41 -33
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
753 861 759 699 541
1,275 1,306 1,342 1,422 1,582
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-360 -273 -88 115 280
0 0 0 0 -200
398 87 185 202 365
Aug 15, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 9% of market cap
- Latest net cash -14% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-2% 14% -3% 7% -3%
770 878 853 909 883
- Sales declined seasonally -3% in the second quarter to 883 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 973 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -85% -86% -85% -89%
65 88 72 88 49
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -89% profit from 88 to 49 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 85 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
56 236 121 184 41
-45 -40 -36 -41 -33
- Free cashflow went seasonally from 143 to 8 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -33 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 108 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -33 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 94 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
753 861 759 699 541
1,275 1,306 1,342 1,422 1,582
- Cash declined 699 to 541 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,422 to 1,582 billion rupiah so net cash was down -723 to -1,041 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -100 billion rupiah equity payout -275 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -749 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-360 -273 -88 115 280
0 0 0 0 -200
398 87 185 202 365
- ROTI cumulative capital improved 115 to 280 billion rupiah with -200 & + 365 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 655 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,380 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.87 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 375 billion rupiah which means a 20 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 32% higher target price 1,697 rupiah.
