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RMBA, a 26% higher target price
Current, target price 306, 387 (+26%)
August 28th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales up
Costs flat
1 minute read
Sales up
- Sales increased by 17% in the second quarter to 2,612 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 3,231 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to -3%.
- We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales back to 3,882 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs flat
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was flat at -98% in the second quarter & profit improved to -9 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -106%.
- We use lower -94% costs to predict a 180 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow jumps
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Value, a 26% higher target price
- Cashflow jumped to 1,454 billion rupiah with lower investment spending of -4 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 367 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 198 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- With the positive cashflow, cash increased from 284 to 582 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 5,701 to 5,701 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -5,417 to -4,363 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -171 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be -3,707 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, a 26% higher target price
- RMBA capital from the last six years Improved to -9,251 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 11,140 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.85X sales & 1.07X assets with a 2% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 640 billion rupiah. At 20X, this gives a 26% higher target price of 387 rupiah.