RIGS.jk 10% yield forecast
Current 490 Target 1,383 + 182%
1/31/2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
18% 3% -7% 8% -5%
80 ; 83 ; 77 ; 83 ; 79 billion rupiah
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters net margin, profit
5% 17% 14% 20% 9%
4 ; 14 ; 11 ; 17 ; 7 billion rupiah
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
15 ; 29 ; 28 ; 21 ; 32 billion rupiah
0 ; -13 ; -26 ; -23 ; -16 billion rupiah
Net cash more positive
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
87 ; 85 ; 87 ; 85 ; 101 billion rupiah
32 ; 34 ; 28 ; 20 ; 17 billion rupiah
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
Current 490 Target 1,383 + 182%
1/31/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -1%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 11% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) 0% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities 28% of market cap
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
18% 3% -7% 8% -5%
80 ; 83 ; 77 ; 83 ; 79 billion rupiah
- Sales declined -5% in the fourth quarter to 79 billion rupiah,
- This brings the quarterly average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 83 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters net margin, profit
5% 17% 14% 20% 9%
4 ; 14 ; 11 ; 17 ; 7 billion rupiah
- The net profit margin went from 20% to 9% profit from 17 to 7 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 15% now.
- We use a 15% net profit margin to predict a 13 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
15 ; 29 ; 28 ; 21 ; 32 billion rupiah
0 ; -13 ; -26 ; -23 ; -16 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from -2 to 16 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 8 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -19 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 16 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash more positive
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
87 ; 85 ; 87 ; 85 ; 101 billion rupiah
32 ; 34 ; 28 ; 20 ; 17 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 85 to 101 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 20 to 17 billion rupiah so net cash was up 65 to 84 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -29 billion rupiah equity payout -3 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 119 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
- RIGS.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 33 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 298 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.44 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 10% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 65 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 182% higher target price 1,383 dollars.