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Picture

RANC cashflow less negative

RANC.jk Current 965 Target 644 -33%

12/6/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 0%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -3% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -54% of market cap
​
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-8% 1% 5% 3% -7%
699 706 739 758 701
  • Sales declined -7% in the third quarter to 701 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
  • This brings the average to 0% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 744 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
7% 5% 3% 2% 6%
10 -18 -23 -29 -9
  • The cash margin went from 2% to 6% profit from -29 to -9 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 4% now.
  • We use a 4% cash margin to predict a -17 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-43 76 10 -38 -11
-98 -29 -17 -16 -13
  • Free cashflow went from -55 to -24 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -13 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -10 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -15 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives positive 14 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
79 110 118 73 76
882 1,005 1,033 928 895
  • Cash increased 73 to 76 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 928 to 895 billion rupiah so net cash was up -855 to -819 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -56 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -763 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-52 0 0 -10 -30
0 0 0 0 0
  • RANC.jk (raised) -30 billion rupiah in the third quarter -30 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 56 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 1,510 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.24 X assets with a 20 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 56 billion rupiah which means a 27 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -33% lower target price 644 rupiah.
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