RANC cashflow less negative
RANC.jk Current 965 Target 644 -33%
12/6/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-8% 1% 5% 3% -7%
699 706 739 758 701
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
7% 5% 3% 2% 6%
10 -18 -23 -29 -9
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-43 76 10 -38 -11
-98 -29 -17 -16 -13
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
79 110 118 73 76
882 1,005 1,033 928 895
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-52 0 0 -10 -30
0 0 0 0 0
12/6/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 0%
- Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -3% of market cap
- Latest net cash -54% of market cap
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-8% 1% 5% 3% -7%
699 706 739 758 701
- Sales declined -7% in the third quarter to 701 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 744 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
7% 5% 3% 2% 6%
10 -18 -23 -29 -9
- The cash margin went from 2% to 6% profit from -29 to -9 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 4% now.
- We use a 4% cash margin to predict a -17 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-43 76 10 -38 -11
-98 -29 -17 -16 -13
- Free cashflow went from -55 to -24 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -13 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -10 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -15 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives positive 14 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
79 110 118 73 76
882 1,005 1,033 928 895
- Cash increased 73 to 76 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 928 to 895 billion rupiah so net cash was up -855 to -819 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -56 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -763 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-52 0 0 -10 -30
0 0 0 0 0
- RANC.jk (raised) -30 billion rupiah in the third quarter -30 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 56 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 1,510 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.24 X assets with a 20 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 56 billion rupiah which means a 27 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -33% lower target price 644 rupiah.