RANC cashflow still negative
RANC Current 1,230 Target 761 -38%
Sep 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
4% -8% 1% 5% 7%
756 699 706 739 758
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -93% -95% -97% -98%
13 10 -18 -23 -29
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
11 -43 76 10 -38
-19 -98 -29 -17 -16
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
171 79 110 118 73
780 882 1,005 1,033 928
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
180 129 129 129 119
1 -52 0 0 -10
47 0 0 0 0
Sep 15, 2022
1 minute read
- RANC last 12 months sales growth + 0%
- RANC last 12 months cash flow -8% of market cap
- RANC last 12 months Capital -3% of market cap
- RANC latest net cash -44% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
4% -8% 1% 5% 7%
756 699 706 739 758
- Sales grew 7% in the second quarter to 758 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 827 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -93% -95% -97% -98%
13 10 -18 -23 -29
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -98% profit from -23 to -29 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use a -95% cost ratio to predict a -2 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
11 -43 76 10 -38
-19 -98 -29 -17 -16
- Free cashflow went from -7 to -55 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -39 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a positive 6 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
171 79 110 118 73
780 882 1,005 1,033 928
- Cash declined 118 to 73 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,033 to 928 billion rupiah so net cash was up -915 to -855 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -24 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -754 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
180 129 129 129 119
1 -52 0 0 -10
47 0 0 0 0
- RANC cumulative capital worsened 129 to 119 billion rupiah with -10 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 142 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,924 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.52 X assets with a 55 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 24 billion rupiah (vs -156 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means an 81 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -38% lower target price 761 rupiah.
