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RANC looking a bit less dull as Cashflow returns to positive
RANC Current 1,550 Target 1,165 -25%
Apr 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
2% 2% 4% -8% 1%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-94% -95% -98% -96% -100%
Cashflow POSITIVE again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
48, -55, -7, -141, 46
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-493 -572 -609 -803 -895
Capital paid flat, a -25% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
132, 132, 180, 129, 129
Apr 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
2% 2% 4% -8% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the fourth quarter to 706 billion rupiah -8% below our 769 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 794 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-94% -95% -98% -96% -100%
- The cash cost ratio went from -96% to -100% profit from 10 to -18 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use a lower -95% cost ratio to predict a 24 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow POSITIVE again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
48, -55, -7, -141, 46
- Free cashflow turned positive again after 3 negative quarters from -141 to 46 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -29 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -22 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -19 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 12 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-493 -572 -609 -803 -895
- Cash increased 79 to 110 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 882 to 1,005 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -803 to -895 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -26 billion rupiah equity payout -14 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -832 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat, a -25% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
132, 132, 180, 129, 129
- RANC 24 quarters capital paid was flat at 129 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & will be 120 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,425 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.61 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 49 billion rupiah which means an 49 X valuation. A 37 X valuation gives a -25% lower target price 1,165 rupiah.