RALS, 21% yield forecast!
RALS Current 580 Target 1,362 + 135%
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales up seasonally 41%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
972, 207, 1,016, 601, 848
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-66% -65% -83% -83% -58%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
112 103 674 -349 794
Last 5 quarters change in net cash + 22% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-508 -328 93 -634 280
Last 12 months capital + 8% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,792 1,811 1,872 1,897 2,099
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales up seasonally 41%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
972, 207, 1,016, 601, 848
- Sales up seasonally 41% in the second quarter to 848 billion rupiah -43% below our 1500 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 78% growth.
- We predict average growth of 19% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,450 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-66% -65% -83% -83% -58%
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -58% profit from 30 to 256 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -72% now.
- We use the average -72% cost ratio to predict a 307 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
112 103 674 -349 794
- Free cashflow went from -349 to 794 billion rupiah in the second quarter with positive 329 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Last 12 months average Cashflow is 305 billion rupiah + 34% of market cap.
- We assume -28 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 214 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months:
Last 5 quarters change in net cash + 22% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-508 -328 93 -634 280
- Cash increased 1,169 to 1,692 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,803 to 1,412 billion rupiah so net cash improved -634 to 280 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -773 billion rupiah equity payout -82 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 589 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Last 12 months capital + 8% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,792 1,811 1,872 1,897 2,099
- RALS 26 quarter cumulative capital improved 1,897 to 2,099 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 0 billion rupiah from liabilities + 202 billion rupiah from equity & will be 2,954 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,639 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.76 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 21% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 855 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 135% higher target price 1,362 rupiah.
