RALS 25% yield forecast!
RALS Current 580 Target 1,534 + 164%
10/31/22
1 minute read
Last 12 months Sales growth + 360%
Last 12 months cash flow + 21% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 9% of market cap
Latest net cash 2% of market cap
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-79% 390% -41% 41% 13%
207 1,016 601 848 954
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-65% -83% -83% -58% -89%
-35 68 30 256 12
Cashflow negative from ST investment
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-67 117 -102 397 36
155 567 -287 329 -270
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
959 1,582 1,169 1,692 1,425
1,287 1,489 1,803 1,412 1,354
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
1,811 1,872 1,897 2,099 2,133
0 0 0 0 0
19 61 25 202 34
10/31/22
1 minute read
Last 12 months Sales growth + 360%
Last 12 months cash flow + 21% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 9% of market cap
Latest net cash 2% of market cap
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-79% 390% -41% 41% 13%
207 1,016 601 848 954
- Sales grew 13% in the third quarter to 954 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 20% now.
- This brings the average to 18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 17% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,585 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-65% -83% -83% -58% -89%
-35 68 30 256 12
- The cash cost ratio went from -58% to -89% profit from 256 to 12 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use a -75% cost ratio to predict a 301 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative from ST investment
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-67 117 -102 397 36
155 567 -287 329 -270
- Free cashflow went from 725 to -234 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -270 investment cashflow (short term).
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 197 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -32 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 270 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
959 1,582 1,169 1,692 1,425
1,287 1,489 1,803 1,412 1,354
- Cash declined 1,692 to 1,425 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,412 to 1,354 billion rupiah so net cash was down 280 to 71 billion rupia.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -915 billion rupiah equity payout -164 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 351 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
1,811 1,872 1,897 2,099 2,133
0 0 0 0 0
19 61 25 202 34
- RALS capital improved 2,099 to 2,133 billion rupiah with 0 & + 34 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 3,212 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,671 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 25% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,079 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 164% higher target price 1,534 rupiah.
