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RALS looking sharp with an 11% yield forecast
RALS Current 670 Target 1,521 + 127%
May 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -41%
Last 5 quarters
-20% 144% -79% 390% -41%
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-95% -66% -65% -83% -83%
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-437, 113, 103, 674, -349
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-449 -508 -328 93 -635
Capital paid improved , a 127% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,945 2,176 2,195 2,256 2,281
May 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -41%
Last 5 quarters
-20% 144% -79% 390% -41%
- Sales declined -41% in the first quarter to 601 billion rupiah -30% below our 863 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 104% growth.
- We predict average growth of 13% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 937 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-95% -66% -65% -83% -83%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -83% profit declined from 68 to 30 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -74% now.
- We use the average -74% cost ratio to predict a 143 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-437, 113, 103, 674, -349
- Free cashflow went from 674 to -349 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -287 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 135 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 301 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months:
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-449 -508 -328 93 -635
- Cash declined 1,582 to 1,168 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,489 to 1,803 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 93 to -635 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -452 billion rupiah equity payout -334 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 194 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 127% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,945 2,176 2,195 2,256 2,281
- RALS 25 quarter capital paid improved 2,256 to 2,281 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -25 billion rupiah equity payment & will be 2,990 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,241 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 11% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,203 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. An 8 X valuation gives a 127% higher target price 1,521 rupiah.