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Picture

RAJA cashflow positive again

RAJA.jk Current 955 Target 801 -16%

12/9/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 55%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 11% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -36% of market cap

Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-8% 12% 9% 6% 20%
322 ; 363 ; 395 ; 418 ; 499
  • Sales grew 20% in the third quarter to 499 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 9% now.
  • This brings the average to 12% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 556 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 16% 16% 11% 14%
6 ; 31 ; 33 ; 16 ; 36
  • The cash margin went from 11% to 14% profit from 16 to 36 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 14% now.
  • We use a 14% cash margin to predict a 48 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-64 ; 7 ; 86 ; -22 ; 176
-325 ; 31 ; 63 ; -198 ; 313
  • Free cashflow went from -220 to 488 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 313 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 114 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -31 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 47 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
587 ; 557 ; 487 ; 513 ; 487
1,762 ; 1,727 ; 1,734 ; 1,759 ; 1,932
  • Cash declined 513 to 487 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,759 to 1,932 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,246 to -1,445 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -188 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,257 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-30 ; 19 ; 40 ; 38 ; -3
-7 ; 34 ; 0 ; -95 ; 31
  • RAJA.jk paid 28 billion rupiah in the third quarter -3 billion rupiah liabilities 31 billion rupiah equity, will pay 188 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 4,037 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.03 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 188 billion rupiah which means a 21 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 801 rupiah.
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