RAJA cashflow positive again
RAJA.jk Current 955 Target 801 -16%
12/9/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-8% 12% 9% 6% 20%
322 ; 363 ; 395 ; 418 ; 499
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 16% 16% 11% 14%
6 ; 31 ; 33 ; 16 ; 36
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-64 ; 7 ; 86 ; -22 ; 176
-325 ; 31 ; 63 ; -198 ; 313
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
587 ; 557 ; 487 ; 513 ; 487
1,762 ; 1,727 ; 1,734 ; 1,759 ; 1,932
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-30 ; 19 ; 40 ; 38 ; -3
-7 ; 34 ; 0 ; -95 ; 31
12/9/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 55%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 11% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
- Latest net cash -36% of market cap
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-8% 12% 9% 6% 20%
322 ; 363 ; 395 ; 418 ; 499
- Sales grew 20% in the third quarter to 499 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 9% now.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 556 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 16% 16% 11% 14%
6 ; 31 ; 33 ; 16 ; 36
- The cash margin went from 11% to 14% profit from 16 to 36 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 14% now.
- We use a 14% cash margin to predict a 48 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-64 ; 7 ; 86 ; -22 ; 176
-325 ; 31 ; 63 ; -198 ; 313
- Free cashflow went from -220 to 488 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 313 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 114 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -31 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 47 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
587 ; 557 ; 487 ; 513 ; 487
1,762 ; 1,727 ; 1,734 ; 1,759 ; 1,932
- Cash declined 513 to 487 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,759 to 1,932 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,246 to -1,445 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -188 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,257 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-30 ; 19 ; 40 ; 38 ; -3
-7 ; 34 ; 0 ; -95 ; 31
- RAJA.jk paid 28 billion rupiah in the third quarter -3 billion rupiah liabilities 31 billion rupiah equity, will pay 188 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 4,037 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.03 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 188 billion rupiah which means a 21 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 801 rupiah.