RAJA cashflow negative again
RAJA Current 970 Target 689 -29%
Aug 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-7% -7% 13% 9% 3%
24 23 25 28 29
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-92% -90% -84% -84% -89%
0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 1.1
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-2 -5 1 6 -2
-49 -23 2 4 -14
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
66 41 39 34 35
124 123 121 121 120
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-49 -52 -48 -46 -49
0 -2 1 3 3
0 -1 2 0 -7
Aug 22, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -10% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -30% of market cap
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-7% -7% 13% 9% 3%
24 23 25 28 29
- Sales grew 3% in the second quarter to 29 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 32 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-92% -90% -84% -84% -89%
0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 1.1
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -89% profit from 2.3 to 1.1 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use a -86% cost ratio to predict a 2.5 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-2 -5 1 6 -2
-49 -23 2 4 -14
- Free cashflow went negative again from 10 to -15 million dollars in the second quarter with -14 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -7 million dollars now.
- We assume -7 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -3 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
66 41 39 34 35
124 123 121 121 120
- Cash increased 34 to 35 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 121 to 120 million dollars so net cash was up -87 to -85 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout + 13 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -98 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-49 -52 -48 -46 -49
0 -2 1 3 3
0 -1 2 0 -7
- RAJA cumulative capital worsened -46 to -49 million dollars with + 3 & -7 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -62 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 283 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.05 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 17 million dollars which means a 17 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a -29% lower target price 689 rupiah.
