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Picture

PZZA cashflow more negative

PZZA.jk Current 510 Target 330 -35%

12/12/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 9%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -13% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -12% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -86% of market cap
​
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-16% 12% -7% 5% -1%
815 ; 916 ; 853 ; 896 ; 888
  • Sales declined -1% in the third quarter to 888 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 5% now.
  • This brings the average to 2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 987 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 16% 12% 10% 8%
-18 ; 48 ; 2 ; -8 ; -30
  • The cash margin went from 10% to 8% profit from -8 to -30 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 11% now.
  • We use a 11% cash margin to predict a 14 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-38 ; 141 ; 142 ; 28 ; 64
-79 ; -94 ; -181 ; -109 ; -184
  • Free cashflow went from -81 to -120 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -184 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -48 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -94 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 17 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
36 ; 99 ; 39 ; 53 ; 26
1,012 ; 1,050 ; 1,075 ; 1,242 ; 1,341
  • Cash declined 53 to 26 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,242 to 1,341 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,189 to -1,315 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -66 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,249 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-117 ; -16 ; 21 ; -159 ; -94
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 60 ; -1
  • PZZA.jk (raised) -94 billion rupiah in the third quarter -94 billion rupiah liabilities -1 billion rupiah equity, will pay 66 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 1,533 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.64 X assets with a 36 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 66 billion rupiah which means a 23 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -35% lower target price 330 rupiah.
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