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PZZA, a 45% higher target price
Current 685 Target 993 +45%

December 7th 2021
1 minute read

Sales declined -16%
  • Sales declined not surprisingly by -16% in the third quarter to 815 billion rupiah vs our 955 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,048 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Costs higher & a loss again, but will turn positive again
  • The cash cost ratio was at -90% in the third quarter giving a -18 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -88% now.
  • We use the cashflow -88% cost ratio to predict a positive again 28 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

Cashflow negative too, but will turn positive again
  • Free cashflow was -117 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher -79 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -13 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -65 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 59 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Balance sheet, higher leverage
  • Cash increased from 33 to 36 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 953 to 1,012 billion rupiah so net cash from -920 to -976 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -22 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -800 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

​Valuation, a 45% higher target price
  • PZZA capital from the last 19 quarters worsened to -551 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 117 billion rupiah new liabilities & will be -352 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 2,059 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.03 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 199 billion rupiah which means an 10 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 45% higher target price of 993 rupiah.
Dat@ file & model
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA