PZZA more negative cashflow
PZZA Current 505 Target 316 -38%
Sep 11, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
37% -16% 12% -7% 5%
975 815 916 853 896
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-87% -90% -84% -88% -90%
27 -18 48 2 -8
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
224 -38 141 142 28
-71 -79 -94 -181 -109
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
33 36 99 39 53
953 1,012 1,050 1,075 1,242
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-431 -551 -567 -546 -645
114 -117 -16 21 -159
66 0 0 0 60
Sep 11, 2022
1 minute read
- PZZA last 12 months sales growth -8%
- PZZA last 12 months cash flow -13% of market cap
- PZZA last 12 months Capital -14% of market cap
- PZZA latest net cash -78% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
37% -16% 12% -7% 5%
975 815 916 853 896
- Sales grew 5% in the second quarter to 896 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 6% now.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,059 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-87% -90% -84% -88% -90%
27 -18 48 2 -8
- The cash cost ratio went from -88% to -90% profit from 2 to -8 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -88% now.
- We use the average -88% cost ratio to predict a 26 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
224 -38 141 142 28
-71 -79 -94 -181 -109
- Free cashflow went more negative from -38 to -81 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -109 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -47 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -109 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 7 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
33 36 99 39 53
953 1,012 1,050 1,075 1,242
- Cash increased 39 to 53 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,075 to 1,242 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,036 to -1,189 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -7 billion rupiah equity payout -21 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,168 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-431 -551 -567 -546 -645
114 -117 -16 21 -159
66 0 0 0 60
- PZZA cumulative capital worsened -546 to -645 billion rupiah with -159 & + 60 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -618 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,518 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.64 X assets with a 85 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 27 billion rupiah (vs -190 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 56 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a -38% lower target price 316 rupiah.
