PYPL still raising capital
PYPL Current 95 Target 106 + 11%
Aug 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% -1% 12% -6% 5%
6,238 6,182 6,918 6,483 6,806
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-73% -72% -74% -74% -82%
1,184 1,087 801 509 -341
Cashflow negative on ST investments
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,306 1,513 1,763 1,242 1,466
-1,099 326 -3,129 -752 -3,916
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
5,745 7,782 5,197 4,861 4,583
52,911 52,444 54,076 55,202 58,043
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-19,514 -18,698 -18,120 -16,805 -18,250
0 429 -908 -182 -2,143
0 387 1,486 1,497 698
Aug 9, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -48% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% -1% 12% -6% 5%
6,238 6,182 6,918 6,483 6,806
- Sales grew 5% in the second quarter to 6,806 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,315 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-73% -72% -74% -74% -82%
1,184 1,087 801 509 -341
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -82% profit from 509 to -341 billion rupiah in the second quarter with higher non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use the average -75% cost ratio to predict a 697 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative on ST investments
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,306 1,513 1,763 1,242 1,466
-1,099 326 -3,129 -752 -3,916
- Free cashflow went from 490 to -2,450 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -3,916 investment cashflow from ST investments (bonds).
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -372 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -213 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a positive 1,530 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
5,745 7,782 5,197 4,861 4,583
52,911 52,444 54,076 55,202 58,043
- Cash declined 4,861 to 4,583 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 55,202 to 58,043 billion rupiah so net cash was down -50,341 to -53,460 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,292 billion rupiah equity payout -4,828 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -48,632 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-19,514 -18,698 -18,120 -16,805 -18,250
0 429 -908 -182 -2,143
0 387 1,486 1,497 698
- PYPL cumulative capital worsened -16,805 to -18,250 billion rupiah with -2,143 & + 698 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -12,131 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 110,236 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.5 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 6,119 billion rupiah which means an 18 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 11% higher target price 106 dollars.
