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Picture

PYPL Cashflow average positive

Current 69 Target 73 + 6%

12/28/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 11%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -63% of market cap
​
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-1% 12% -6% 5% 1%
6,182 ; 6,918 ; 6,483 ; 6,806 ; 6,846 million dollars
  • Sales grew 1% in the third quarter to 6,846 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 1% now.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,393 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
28% 26% 26% 18% 28%
1,087 ; 801 ; 509 ; -341 ; 1,330 million dollars
  • The cash margin went from 18% to 28% profit from -341 to 1,330 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 24% now.
  • We use a 28% cash margin to predict a 964 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,513 ; 1,763 ; 1,242 ; 1,466 ; 1,948 million dollars
326 ; -3,129 ; -752 ; -3,916 ; 1,381 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from -2,450 to 3,329 million dollars in the third quarter with positive 1,381 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1 million dollars now.
  • We assume -1,096 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 945 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
7,782 ; 5,197 ; 4,861 ; 4,583 ; 6,659 million dollars
52,444 ; 54,076 ; 55,202 ; 58,043 ; 56,171 million dollars
  • Cash increased 4,583 to 6,659 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 58,043 to 56,171 million dollars so net cash was up -53,460 to -49,512 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,115 million dollars equity payout -2,664 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -46,848 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
429 ; -908 ; -182 ; -2,143 ; 2,233 million dollars
387 ; 1,486 ; 1,497 ; 698 ; 939 million dollars
  • PYPL paid 3,172 million dollars in the third quarter 2,233 million dollars liabilities 939 million dollars equity, will pay 3,779 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 78,696 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.03 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3,779 million dollars which means a 21 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price 73 rupiah.
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