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PWON looking sharp with record cashflow
PWON Current 505 Target 705 + 40%
May 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -32%
Last 5 quarters
20% 20% -1% 45% -32%
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-58% -67% -61% -53% -53%
Cashflow higher to a record
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
431, 640, 246, 608, 641
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,614 -5,109 -4,348 -3,244 -2,709
Capital paid improved , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,364, 1,399, 1,517, 1,611, 1,661
May 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -32%
Last 5 quarters
20% 20% -1% 45% -32%
- Sales declined seasonally -32% in the first quarter to 1,307 billion rupiah -13% below our 1,501 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,621 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-58% -67% -61% -53% -53%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -53% profit declined from 750 to 409 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use a -56% cost ratio to predict a 553 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher to a record
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
431, 640, 246, 608, 641
- Free cashflow went from 608 to a record 641 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -88 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 534 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -88 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 631 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,614 -5,109 -4,348 -3,244 -2,709
- Cash increased 6,444 to 7,038 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 9,688 to 9,747 billion rupiah so net cash improved -3,244 to -2,709 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -634 billion rupiah equity payout -1,808 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -919 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,364, 1,399, 1,517, 1,611, 1,661
- PWON 29 quarter capital paid improved 1,611 to 1,661 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -50 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 4,103 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 24,321 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.84 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,425 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 14 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 705 rupiah.