PWON 5% yield forecast
PWON Current 444 Target 664 + 49%
11/5/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-1% 45% -32% 10% 21%
1,329 1,925 1,307 1,444 1,744
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-61% -53% -53% -49% -53%
274 750 409 451 522
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow & investment billion rupiah
338 713 729 460 410
-92 -106 -88 99 -224
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5,927 6,444 7,038 7,671 7,910
10,275 9,688 9,747 9,683 9,559
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,130 1,223 1,273 1,273 1,273
118 94 50 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
11/5/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 31%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 9% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -8% of market cap
Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-1% 45% -32% 10% 21%
1,329 1,925 1,307 1,444 1,744
- Sales grew 21% in the third quarter to 1,744 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,923 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-61% -53% -53% -49% -53%
274 750 409 451 522
- The cash cost ratio went from -49% to -53% profit from 451 to 522 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -52% now.
- We use a -53% cost ratio to predict a 736 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow & investment billion rupiah
338 713 729 460 410
-92 -106 -88 99 -224
- Free cashflow went from 559 to 186 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -224 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 498 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -71 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 799 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5,927 6,444 7,038 7,671 7,910
10,275 9,688 9,747 9,683 9,559
- Cash increased 7,671 to 7,910 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 9,683 to 9,559 billion rupiah so net cash was up -2,012 to -1,649 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,126 billion rupiah equity payout -1,773 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 421 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,130 1,223 1,273 1,273 1,273
118 94 50 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
- PWON cumulative capital improved 1,273 to 1,273 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 4,172 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 21,383 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.71 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,196 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 49% higher target price 664 rupiah.
