PTRO higher investment spending
PTRO Current 2,990 Target 4,694 + 57%
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
12% 6% 5% -16% 15%
102.2 108.3 114.1 95.8 110.6
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-72% -79% -66% -78% -80%
8.1 2.6 19.5 2.2 8.7
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
55 32 28 34 37
-23 -22 -25 -8 -60
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
91 96 89 102 100
275 287 273 274 293
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
67 74 88 104 85
14 5 10 13 -22
8 0 0 0 0
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 9% of market cap
- Latest net cash -94% of market cap
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
12% 6% 5% -16% 15%
102.2 108.3 114.1 95.8 110.6
- Sales grew 15% in the second quarter to 110.6 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 0% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 123 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-72% -79% -66% -78% -80%
8.1 2.6 19.5 2.2 8.7
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -80% profit from 2.2 to 8.7 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use the average -76% cost ratio to predict a 13 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
55 32 28 34 37
-23 -22 -25 -8 -60
- Free cashflow went from 26 to -24 million dollars in the second quarter with -60 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 4 million dollars now.
- We assume -18 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 8 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
91 96 89 102 100
275 287 273 274 293
- Cash declined 102 to 100 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 274 to 293 million dollars so net cash was down -172 to -193 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -5 million dollars equity payout -27 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -154 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
67 74 88 104 85
14 5 10 13 -22
8 0 0 0 0
- PTRO cumulative capital worsened 104 to 85 million dollars with -22 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 117 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 204 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 6 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 32 million dollars which means a 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 57% higher target price 4,694 rupiah.
