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PTRO, looking sharp with a 7% yield forecast, a 3X valuation.
PTRO Current 2,920 Target 6,059 + 107%
May 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -16%
Last 5 quarters
0% 12% 6% 5% -16%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-76% -72% -79% -66% -78%
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-28, 32, 10, 3, 26
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-198 -184 -191 -184 -172
Capital paid improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
40, 67, 74, 88, 104
May 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -16%
Last 5 quarters
0% 12% 6% 5% -16%
- Sales declined -16% in the first quarter to 95.8 million dollars -11% below our 107.3 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 116.0 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-76% -72% -79% -66% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -66% to -78% profit from 19.5 to 2.2 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -74% now.
- We use a lower -73% cost ratio to predict a 11.9 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-28, 32, 10, 3, 26
- Free cashflow went much higher from 3 to 26 million dollars in the first quarter with -8 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 18 million dollars now.
- We assume -11.5 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 16.1 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-198 -184 -191 -184 -172
- Cash increased 89 to 102 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 273 to 274 million dollars so net cash improved -184 to -172 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -13.5 million dollars equity payout -50.8 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -111 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
40, 67, 74, 88, 104
- PTRO 24 quarter capital paid improved 88 to 104 million dollars in the first quarter with a -13 million dollars liabilities payment & will be 155 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 207 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.40 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 61 million dollars which means an 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 107% higher target price of 6,059 rupiah.