PTPP still negative cashflow
PTPP Current 940 Target 847 -10%
11 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
27% 31% 17% -23% 11%
3,619 4,754 5,552 4,281 4,743
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -94% -92% -95% -95%
63 95 157 53 59
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-131 129 1,487 -704 -1,265
74 -862 -627 -412 -534
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
5,474 5,314 6,603 4,907 5,390
41,279 41,992 41,244 42,153 43,714
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-17,373 -17,952 -18,516 -17,875 -20,226
-329 -553 -568 641 -2,351
0 -26 4 0 0
11 Aug 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -48% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -49% of market cap
- Latest net cash -659% of market cap
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
27% 31% 17% -23% 11%
3,619 4,754 5,552 4,281 4,743
- Sales grew 11% in the second quarter to 4,743 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 13% now.
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,406 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -94% -92% -95% -95%
63 95 157 53 59
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -95% profit went up from 53 to 59 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use a -93% cost ratio to predict a 314 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-131 129 1,487 -704 -1,265
74 -862 -627 -412 -534
- Free cashflow went from -1,115 to -1,800 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -534 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -697 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -473 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives positive 5 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
5,474 5,314 6,603 4,907 5,390
41,279 41,992 41,244 42,153 43,714
- Cash increased 4,907 to 5,390 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 42,153 to 43,714 billion rupiah so net cash was down -37,246 to -38,324 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 32 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -38,356 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-17,373 -17,952 -18,516 -17,875 -20,226
-329 -553 -568 641 -2,351
0 -26 4 0 0
- PTPP cumulative capital worsened -17,875 to -20,226 billion rupiah with -2,351 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -20,257 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,814 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.10 X assets with a 2,726 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 19 billion rupiah which means a 300 X valuation. A 270 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 847 rupiah.
