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PTPP still dull with negative cashflow
PTPP Current 895 Target 1,166 + 30%
11 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-51% 27% 31% 17% -23%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -93% -94% -92% -95%
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,680 -57 -733 860 -1,115
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-34,483 -35,805 -36,678 -34,641 -37,244
Capital raised improved , a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-17,611 -17,941 -18,520 -19,084 -18,505
11 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-51% 27% 31% 17% -23%
- Sales declined seasonally -23% in the first quarter to 4,281 billion rupiah -22% below our 5,497 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,484 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -93% -94% -92% -95%
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -95% profit from 157 to 53 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use the average -94% cost ratio to predict a 258 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,680 -57 -733 860 -1,115
- Free cashflow went from 860 to -1,115 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -412 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -261 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -218 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 200 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-34,483 -35,805 -36,678 -34,641 -37,244
- Cash declined 6,603 to 4,909 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 41,244 to 42,153 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -34,641 to -37,244 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -832 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -36,413 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-17,611 -17,941 -18,520 -19,084 -18,505
- PTPP 29 quarter capital raised improved -19,084 to -18,505 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -641 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will be -17,673 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,536 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.10 X assets with a 65 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 801 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price 1,166 rupiah.