PTPP still raising capital
PTPP.jk Current 910 Target 921 + 1%
11/17/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
31% 17% -23% 11% -6%
4,754 5,552 4,281 4,743 4,438
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-93% -93% -93% -94% -94%
95 157 53 59 99
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
129 1,487 -704 -1,265 -698
-862 -627 -412 -534 -604
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5,314 6,603 4,907 5,390 4,645
41,992 41,244 42,153 43,714 43,427
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-553 -568 641 -2,351 -581
-26 4 0 0 0
11/17/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -7%
- Last 12 months cash flow -60% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -51% of market cap
- Latest net cash -689% of market cap
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
31% 17% -23% 11% -6%
4,754 5,552 4,281 4,743 4,438
- Sales declined -6% in the third quarter to 4,438 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,286 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-93% -93% -93% -94% -94%
95 157 53 59 99
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -94% profit increased from 59 to 99 billion rupiah in the third quarter from lower non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use a -93% cost ratio as sales rise to predict a 198 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
129 1,487 -704 -1,265 -698
-862 -627 -412 -534 -604
- Free cashflow went less negative from -1,800 to -1,302 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -604 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -839 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -517 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -178 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5,314 6,603 4,907 5,390 4,645
41,992 41,244 42,153 43,714 43,427
- Cash declined 5,390 to 4,645 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 43,714 to 43,427 billion rupiah so net cash was down -38,324 to -38,782 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 710 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -39,492 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-553 -568 641 -2,351 -581
-26 4 0 0 0
- PTPP.jk (raised) -581 billion rupiah in the third quarter -581 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will raise -710 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 5,629 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.09 X assets with a -88 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 1,357 billion rupiah which means a 4X valuation. A 4.2 X valuation gives a 1% higher target price 921 rupiah.
