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PTPP still dull with negative cashflow

PTPP Current 895 Target 1,166 + 30%

11 May 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-51% 27% 31% 17% -23%
  • Sales declined seasonally -23% in the first quarter to 4,281 billion rupiah -22% below our 5,497 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 13% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,484 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
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Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -93% -94% -92% -95%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -95% profit from 157 to 53 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
  • We use the average -94% cost ratio to predict a 258 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
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Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,680 -57 -733 860 -1,115
  1. Free cashflow went from 860 to -1,115 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -412 billion rupiah investment spending.
  2. Average quarterly Cashflow is at -261 billion rupiah now.
  3. We assume lower -218 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 200 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
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Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-34,483 -35,805 -36,678 -34,641 -37,244
  • Cash declined 6,603 to 4,909 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 41,244 to 42,153 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -34,641 to -37,244 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -832 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -36,413 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Capital raised improved , a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-17,611 -17,941 -18,520 -19,084 -18,505
  • PTPP 29 quarter capital raised improved -19,084 to -18,505 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -641 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will be -17,673 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 5,536 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.10 X assets with a 65 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 801 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price 1,166 rupiah.
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