sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • mm
  • Capital
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DUTI
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • MCOL
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • MYOH
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • PPRO
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • SMDR
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TCID
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • CMG
  • CVX
  • BP
  • CVX
  • CL
  • META US
  • GOLD
  • FCX
  • MAR
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MA
  • NKE
  • PEP
  • PG
  • PLTR
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • V
  • WMT
  • WY
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TXN
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • BERK
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • KIJA
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • IATA
  • Above
  • Untitled
  • ALF
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS
  • Subcapital
  • Kings
  • Weekly2
Picture

PTBA cashflow more positive

Picture
Current 3,880 Target 5,497 + 42%

Mar 2, 2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 17%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 25% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 19% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -21% of market cap

Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
9% -17% 25% 24% -8%
9,880 ; 8,205 ; 10,218 ; 12,648 ; 11,578 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined -8% in the fourth quarter to 11,578 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
  • We predict average growth of -0% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 11,237 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
38% 33% 47% 34% 28%
3,184 ; 2,301 ; 3,975 ; 3,902 ; 2,601 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 34% to 28% net profit from 3,902 to 2,601 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 36% now.
  • We use a 31% cash profit margin to predict a 2,921 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,432 ; 2,128 ; 3,767 ; 3,267 ; 3,365 billion rupiah
-4,774 ; -416 ; 2,228 ; -2,115 ; -991 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 1,152 to 2,374 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -991 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,808 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -991 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 2,255 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
4,394 ; 6,106 ; 4,165 ; 5,318 ; 7,030 billion rupiah
11,870 ; 12,468 ; 13,208 ; 14,782 ; 16,443 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 5,318 to 7,030 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 14,782 to 16,443 billion rupiah so net cash was up -9,464 to -9,413 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -8,498 billion rupiah equity payout -522 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -8,891 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 562 billion rupiah
91 ; 0 ; 7,971 ; 1 ; 132 billion rupiah
  • PTBA.jk paid 695 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 562 billion rupiah liabilities 132 billion rupiah equity, will pay 9,020 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 44,570 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.95 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 19% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 9,020 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 42% higher target price 5,497 rupiah.
SHARPFOKUS CAPITAL
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • mm
  • Capital
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DUTI
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • MCOL
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • MYOH
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • PPRO
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • SMDR
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TCID
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • CMG
  • CVX
  • BP
  • CVX
  • CL
  • META US
  • GOLD
  • FCX
  • MAR
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MA
  • NKE
  • PEP
  • PG
  • PLTR
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • V
  • WMT
  • WY
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TXN
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • BERK
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • KIJA
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • IATA
  • Above
  • Untitled
  • ALF
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS
  • Subcapital
  • Kings
  • Weekly2