PTBA cashflow more positive
Current 3,880 Target 5,497 + 42%
Mar 2, 2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
9% -17% 25% 24% -8%
9,880 ; 8,205 ; 10,218 ; 12,648 ; 11,578 billion rupiah
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
38% 33% 47% 34% 28%
3,184 ; 2,301 ; 3,975 ; 3,902 ; 2,601 billion rupiah
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,432 ; 2,128 ; 3,767 ; 3,267 ; 3,365 billion rupiah
-4,774 ; -416 ; 2,228 ; -2,115 ; -991 billion rupiah
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
4,394 ; 6,106 ; 4,165 ; 5,318 ; 7,030 billion rupiah
11,870 ; 12,468 ; 13,208 ; 14,782 ; 16,443 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 562 billion rupiah
91 ; 0 ; 7,971 ; 1 ; 132 billion rupiah
Mar 2, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 17%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 25% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 19% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -21% of market cap
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
9% -17% 25% 24% -8%
9,880 ; 8,205 ; 10,218 ; 12,648 ; 11,578 billion rupiah
- Sales declined -8% in the fourth quarter to 11,578 billion rupiah .
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of -0% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 11,237 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
38% 33% 47% 34% 28%
3,184 ; 2,301 ; 3,975 ; 3,902 ; 2,601 billion rupiah
- The cash profit margin went from 34% to 28% net profit from 3,902 to 2,601 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 36% now.
- We use a 31% cash profit margin to predict a 2,921 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,432 ; 2,128 ; 3,767 ; 3,267 ; 3,365 billion rupiah
-4,774 ; -416 ; 2,228 ; -2,115 ; -991 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 1,152 to 2,374 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -991 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,808 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -991 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 2,255 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
4,394 ; 6,106 ; 4,165 ; 5,318 ; 7,030 billion rupiah
11,870 ; 12,468 ; 13,208 ; 14,782 ; 16,443 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 5,318 to 7,030 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 14,782 to 16,443 billion rupiah so net cash was up -9,464 to -9,413 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -8,498 billion rupiah equity payout -522 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -8,891 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 562 billion rupiah
91 ; 0 ; 7,971 ; 1 ; 132 billion rupiah
- PTBA.jk paid 695 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 562 billion rupiah liabilities 132 billion rupiah equity, will pay 9,020 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 44,570 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.95 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 19% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 9,020 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 42% higher target price 5,497 rupiah.
SHARPFOKUS CAPITAL