PTBA 16% yield forecast
PTBA Current 3,790 Target 7,348 + 94%
10/28/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 24%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
44% 9% -17% 25% 24%
9,091 9,880 8,205 10,218 12,648
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-64% -67% -69% -61% -67%
3,045 3,184 2,301 3,975 3,902
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
3,588 4,432 2,128 3,767 3,267
-1,910 -4,774 -416 2,228 -2,115
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
4,819 4,394 6,106 4,165 5,318
11,167 11,870 12,468 13,208 14,782
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
13,840 13,932 13,933 21,905 21,907
1 1 1 1 1
-684 91 0 7,971 1
10/28/22
1 minute read
- PTBA last 12 months sales growth + 39%
- PTBA last 12 months cash flow + 20% of market cap
- PTBA last 12 months Capital + 19% of market cap
- PTBA latest net cash -22% of market cap
Sales grew 24%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
44% 9% -17% 25% 24%
9,091 9,880 8,205 10,218 12,648
- Sales grew 24% in the second quarter to 12,648 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -4% now.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 13,524 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-64% -67% -69% -61% -67%
3,045 3,184 2,301 3,975 3,902
- The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -67% profit from 3,975 to 3,902 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -66% now.
- We use a -67% cost ratio to predict a 4,287 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
3,588 4,432 2,128 3,767 3,267
-1,910 -4,774 -416 2,228 -2,115
- Free cashflow went from 5,995 to 1,152 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -2,115 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,129 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,662 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2,638 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
4,819 4,394 6,106 4,165 5,318
11,167 11,870 12,468 13,208 14,782
- Cash increased 4,165 to 5,318 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 13,208 to 14,782 billion rupiah so net cash was down -9,043 to -9,464 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -6,772 billion rupiah equity payout -2,698 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,083 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
13,840 13,932 13,933 21,905 21,907
1 1 1 1 1
-684 91 0 7,971 1
- PTBA cumulative capital improved 21,905 to 21,907 billion rupiah with + 1 & + 1 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 31,377 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 43,536 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.91 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 16% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 10,551 billion rupiah (vs 8,517 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 94% higher target price 7,348 rupiah.
