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PTBA sharp as cashflow jumps back towards 2 trillion rupiah
PTBA Current 4,100 Target 9,012 + 120%
May 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -17%
Last 5 quarters
-11% 58% 44% 9% -17%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -73% -64% -67% -69%
Cashflow jumps back
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
186, -1,109, 1,678, -342, 1,712
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,527 -7,061 -6,348 -7,476 -6,363
Capital paid improved , a 120% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
13,885, 14,740, 14,057, 14,149, 14,150
May 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -17%
Last 5 quarters
-11% 58% 44% 9% -17%
- Sales declined -17% in the first quarter to 8,205 billion rupiah -28% below our 11,363 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 23% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 10,152 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -73% -64% -67% -69%
- The cash cost ratio went from -67% to -69% profit from 3,184 to 2,301 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -68% now.
- We use the average -68% cost ratio to predict a 2,972 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow jumps back
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
186, -1,109, 1,678, -342, 1,712
- Free cashflow went from -342 to 1,712 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -416 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 485 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,005 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,123 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,527 -7,061 -6,348 -7,476 -6,363
- Cash increased 4,394 to 6,105 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 11,870 to 12,468 billion rupiah so net cash improved -7,476 to -6,363 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -3,606 billion rupiah equity payout -2,313 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -848 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 120% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
13,885, 14,740, 14,057, 14,149, 14,150
- PTBA 29 quarter capital paid improved 14,149 to 14,150 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -1 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 20,069 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 47,098 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.04 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 8,627 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 120% higher target price 9,012 rupiah.