PSKT a bit expensive
PSKT Current 86 Target 82 -5%
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% -9% 50% -12% 2%
11 10 15 13 13
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-106% -103% -81% -54% -103%
-4 -4 0 -2 -2
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-1 -0 3 7 -0
-0 -0 -0 -1 -0
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
6 5 8 14 12
67 67 67 68 67
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-808 -808 -808 -808 -807
0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
- PSKT last 12 months sales growth 1X average + 22%
- PSKT last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
- PSKT last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
- PSKT latest net cash -6% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% -9% 50% -12% 2%
11 10 15 13 13
- Sales grew 2% in the second quarter to 13 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 0 now.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 18 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-106% -103% -81% -54% -103%
-4 -4 0 -2 -2
- The cash cost ratio went from -54% to -103% profit was flat at -2 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a -1 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-1 -0 3 7 -0
-0 -0 -0 -1 -0
- Free cashflow went from 6 to -1 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -0.4 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -0.4 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
6 5 8 14 12
67 67 67 68 67
- Cash declined 14 to 12 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 68 to 67 billion rupiah so net cash was down -54 to -55 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -8 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -46 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-808 -808 -808 -808 -807
0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0
- PSKT cumulative capital improved -808 to -807 billion rupiah with + 1 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -799 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 890 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.2 X assets with a 48 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 8 billion rupiah (vs 8 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 105 X valuation. A 100 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price 82 rupiah.
