PSGO a bit expensive
PSGO Current 149 Target 136 -9%
11/8/22
1 minute read
Sales declined -34%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
42% 64% -17% -6% -34%
423 695 576 544 361
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-82% -75% -78% -79% -98%
44 152 96 72 -28
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
154 158 13 -9 142
-57 -63 48 34 -83
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
245 367 404 454 477
2,260 2,307 2,262 2,267 2,312
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,926 -1,954 -1,929 -1,953 -1,918
-32 -28 25 -24 35
0 0 0 0 0
11/8/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -15%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 9% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -65% of market cap
Sales declined -34%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
42% 64% -17% -6% -34%
423 695 576 544 361
- Sales declined -34% in the third quarter to 361 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 459 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-82% -75% -78% -79% -98%
44 152 96 72 -28
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -98% profit from 72 to -28 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use a -81% cost ratio to predict a 54 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
154 158 13 -9 142
-57 -63 48 34 -83
- Free cashflow went from 25 to 58 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -83 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 60 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -25 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 60 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
245 367 404 454 477
2,260 2,307 2,262 2,267 2,312
- Cash increased 454 to 477 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,267 to 2,312 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,813 to -1,835 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -241 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,594 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,926 -1,954 -1,929 -1,953 -1,918
-32 -28 25 -24 35
0 0 0 0 0
- PSGO cumulative capital improved -1,953 to -1,918 billion rupiah with + 35 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -1,677 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,809 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.73 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 143 billion rupiah which means a 20 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -9% lower target price 136 rupiah.
