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PSGO a bit expensive

PSGO Current 149 Target 136 -9%

11/8/22
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -15%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 9% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -65% of market cap

Sales declined -34%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
42% 64% -17% -6% -34%
423 695 576 544 361
  • Sales declined -34% in the third quarter to 361 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
  • This brings the average to 2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 459 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-82% -75% -78% -79% -98%
44 152 96 72 -28
  • The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -98% profit from 72 to -28 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
  • We use a -81% cost ratio to predict a 54 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
154 158 13 -9 142
-57 -63 48 34 -83
  • Free cashflow went from 25 to 58 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -83 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 60 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -25 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 60 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
245 367 404 454 477
2,260 2,307 2,262 2,267 2,312
  • Cash increased 454 to 477 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 2,267 to 2,312 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,813 to -1,835 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -241 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,594 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,926 -1,954 -1,929 -1,953 -1,918
-32 -28 25 -24 35
0 0 0 0 0
  • PSGO cumulative capital improved -1,953 to -1,918 billion rupiah with + 35 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -1,677 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 2,809 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.73 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 143 billion rupiah which means a 20 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -9% lower target price 136 rupiah.
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