PSGO still raising capital
PSGO Current 184 Target 239 + 30%
Aug 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-14% 42% 64% -17% -6%
299, 423, 695, 576, 544
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-94% -82% -75% -78% -79%
-11 44 152 96 72
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-86 154 158 13 -9
5 -57 -63 48 34
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
118 245 367 404 454
2,148 2,260 2,307 2,262 2,267
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,895 -1,926 -1,954 -1,929 -1,953
25 -32 -28 25 -24
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 7, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -2% of market cap
- Latest net cash -52% of market cap
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-14% 42% 64% -17% -6%
299, 423, 695, 576, 544
- Sales declined -6% in the second quarter to 544 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 646 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-94% -82% -75% -78% -79%
-11 44 152 96 72
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -79% profit from 96 to 72 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the average -79% cost ratio to predict a 101 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-86 154 158 13 -9
5 -57 -63 48 34
- Free cashflow went from 61 to 25 billion rupiah in the second quarter with lower positive 34 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 69 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -10 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 122 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
118 245 367 404 454
2,148 2,260 2,307 2,262 2,267
- Cash increased 404 to 454 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,262 to 2,267 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,858 to -1,813 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -75 billion rupiah equity payout -414 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,399 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,895 -1,926 -1,954 -1,929 -1,953
25 -32 -28 25 -24
0 0 0 0 0
- PSGO cumulative capital worsened -1,929 to -1,953 billion rupiah with -24 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -1,464 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,468 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.93 X assets with an 8 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 450 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price 239 rupiah.