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PSGO, looking sharp with strong cashflow
PSGO Current 182 Target 266 + 46%
May 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -17%
Last 5 quarters
52% -14% 42% 64% -17%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-84% -94% -82% -75% -78%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1, -79, 102, 100, 66
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,952 -2,030 -2,015 -1,940 -1,858
Capital raised improved , a 46% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,920 -1,895 -1,926 -1,954 -1,929
May 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -17%
Last 5 quarters
52% -14% 42% 64% -17%
- Sales declined -17% in the first quarter to 576 billion rupiah -21% below our 730 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 666 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-84% -94% -82% -75% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -75% to -78% profit from 152 to 96 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use the latest -78% cost ratio to predict a 111 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1, -79, 102, 100, 66
- Free cashflow went from 100 to 66 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 48 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 47 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -17 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 130 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,952 -2,030 -2,015 -1,940 -1,858
- Cash increased 367 to 404 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,307 to 2,262 billion rupiah so net cash improved -1,940 to -1,858 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -85 billion rupiah equity payout -417 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,441 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 46% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,920 -1,895 -1,926 -1,954 -1,929
- PSGO 25 quarter capital raised improved -1,954 to -1,929 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -25 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -1,427 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,431 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.93 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 502 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 46% higher target price 266 rupiah.