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PSDN, a 108% higher target price
Current 173 Target 359 +108%

November 8th 2021
1 minute read
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Sales flat
  • Sales were flat 0% growth in the third quarter to 207 billion rupiah vs our 206 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 271 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

Costs, higher but lower in Cashflow
  • The cash cost ratio was higher at -110% in the third quarter giving a -20 billion rupiah net profit.
  • But the Cashflow cost ratio is better at -87% now.
  • We use the -87% cost ratio as sales rise to predict a 31.8 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Cashflow jumped
  • Free cashflow jumped back to 26 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -1.5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 34.3 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

Balance sheet
  • Cash increased from 24 to 33 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased slightly from 665 to 669 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -641 to -636 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -11.9 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -519 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Valuation, a 5% yield & 108% higher target price
  • PSDN capital from the last 27 quarters was -212 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be -83 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 249 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.35 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 5% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 129 billion rupiah which means an 2 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 108% higher target price of 359 rupiah.
Data file & model
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA