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PSDN dull with still weak sales
PSDN Current 150 Target 152 + 2%
Jun 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-5% -18% 0% -1% 1%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-102% -109% -110% -107% -100%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
26, -11, 26, 3, 4
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-633 -641 -636 -630 -642
Capital raised improved a 2% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-208 -229 -212 -207 -204
Jun 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-5% -18% 0% -1% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 207 billion rupiah -16% below our 246 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to -4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 266 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-102% -109% -110% -107% -100%
- The cash cost ratio went from -107% to -100% profit from -18 to -5 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -107% now.
- We use a lower -99% cost ratio to predict a -2.9 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
26, -11, 26, 3, 4
- Free cashflow went from 3 to 4 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same 0.0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1.5 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-633 -641 -636 -630 -642
- Cash declined 30 to 30 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 660 to 672 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -630 to -642 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0.0 billion rupiah equity payout -130.1 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -636 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved a 2% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-208 -229 -212 -207 -204
- PSDN 29 quarter capital raised improved -207 to -204 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -3 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -198 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 216 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.31 X assets with a 111 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 6 billion rupiah which means a 35 X valuation. A 36 X valuation gives a 2% higher target price 152 rupiah.