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Picture
PSDN.jk Sales declined -22%

Current 84 Target 94 + 11%

1/6/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth -33%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 60% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 55% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -527% of market cap

Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
0% -1% 1% -14% -22%
207 ; 206 ; 207 ; 178 ; 139 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined -22% in the third quarter to 139 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -100% now.
  • This brings the average to -9% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 146 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
-5% -7% -0% -0% -10%
-20 ; -18 ; -5 ; -4 ; -18 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from -0% to -10% profit from -4 to -18 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -4% now.
  • We use a 5% cash margin from Cashflow to predict a 3 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
27 ; 3 ; 4 ; 4 ; 20 billion rupiah
-2 ; 0 ; -0 ; 36 ; 7 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 40 to 27 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 7 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 18 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 7 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
33 ; 30 ; 30 ; 42 ; 40 billion rupiah
669 ; 660 ; 672 ; 653 ; 677 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 42 to 40 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 653 to 677 billion rupiah so net cash was down -611 to -637 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -27 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -610 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-3 ; -3 ; 3 ; 29 ; 29 billion rupiah
10 ; 10 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • PSDN.jk paid 29 billion rupiah in the third quarter 29 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 27 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 121 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.18 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 27 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 11% higher target price 94 rupiah.
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