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PSAB looking sharper with stronger cashflow
PSAB Current 123 Target 170 + 38%
Jun 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -36%
Last 5 quarters
43% -32% -29% 6% -36%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-74% -82% -87% -34% -58%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
13, 11, -1, 115, 13
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-540 -528 -542 -436 -398
Capital paid worsened a 38% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-72, -62, -62, 51, 32
Jun 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -36%
Last 5 quarters
43% -32% -29% 6% -36%
- Sales declined -36% in the first quarter to 29 million dollars -48% below our 56 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to -23% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 38 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-74% -82% -87% -34% -58%
- The cash cost ratio went from -34% to -58% profit from 13 to 2 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use the latest -58% cost ratio to predict a 6 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
13, 11, -1, 115, 13
- Free cashflow went from 115 to 13 million dollars in the first quarter with 10 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 35 million dollars now.
- We assume -5 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 11 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-540 -528 -542 -436 -398
- Cash increased 6 to 35 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 442 to 433 million dollars so net cash improved -436 to -398 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -38 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -357 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened a 38% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-72, -62, -62, 51, 32
- PSAB 25 quarter capital paid worsened 51 to 32 million dollars in the first quarter with 18 million dollars new liabilities but will be 71 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 232 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.28 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 37 million dollars which means a 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 38% higher target price 170 rupiah.