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PSAB.jk Cashflow negative

Current 107 Target 126 + 18%

12/26/2022
1 minute read

​
  • Last 12 months sales growth -41%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 45% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 46% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -221% of market cap

Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-30% 6% -36% -11% -2%
612 ; 647 ; 414 ; 369 ; 361 Rp billion
  • Sales declined -2% in the third quarter to 361 Rp billion ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -30% now.
  • This brings the average to -11% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 379 Rp billion in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
13% 66% 42% 25% 33%
-122 ; 191 ; 27 ; -21 ; 33 Rp billion
  • The cash margin went from 25% to 33% profit from -21 to 33 Rp billion in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 41% now.
  • We use a 41% cash margin to predict a 42 Rp billion profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
216 ; 238 ; 40 ; 40 ; -415 Rp billion
-229 ; 1,405 ; 149 ; -236 ; 44 Rp billion
  • Free cashflow went from -196 to -371 Rp billion in the third quarter with 44 Rp billion investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 316 Rp billion now.
  • We assume -14 Rp billion investment spending which with higher sales gives 139 Rp billion average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
57 ; 86 ; 501 ; 352 ; 79 Rp billion
7,823 ; 6,310 ; 6,204 ; 6,274 ; 6,345 Rp billion
  • Cash declined 352 to 79 Rp billion in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 6,274 to 6,345 Rp billion so net cash was down -5,923 to -6,266 Rp billion .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 Rp billion equity payout -557 Rp billion liabilities net cash will be -5,709 Rp billion in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-11 ; 1,613 ; -259 ; 7 ; -72 Rp billion
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 Rp billion
  • PSAB.jk (raised) -72 Rp billion in the third quarter -72 Rp billion liabilities 0 Rp billion equity, will pay 557 Rp billion this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 2,831 Rp billion based on our forecasts it’s at 0.23 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 557 Rp billion which means a 5 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 18% higher target price 126 rupiah.
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