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PRIM, an 87% higher target price
Current, target price 396, 741 (+87%)
July 17th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, lower
Costs a bit higher
1 minute read
Sales, lower
- Sales declined by -9% in the first quarter to 96 billion rupiah which is 109% higher than a year ago.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 28%.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 116 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2022.
Costs a bit higher
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was -78% in the first quarter & profit was 16 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -77%.
- We use the average -77% costs to predict a 22 billion rupiah net profit in the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, higher average
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Value, an 87% higher target price
- Cashflow was down to 15 billion rupiah with investment spending of -1 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 14 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 26 billion rupiah cashflow in the first quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- With positive cashflow, cash increased from 42 to 57 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities also increased from 61 to 87 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -19 to -30 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming there’s a -51 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will improve to plus 20 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, an 87% higher target price
- PRIM capital from the last six years improved to -566 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- At the current market value of 1,344 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 2.99X sales & 1.33X assets with a 4% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 101 billion rupiah. At 25X (4% yield), this gives an 87% higher target price of 741 rupiah.