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Picture

POWR at break even

POWR.jk Current 680 Target 874 + 29%

12/12/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 9% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -65% of market cap

Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-3% 4% 1% 6% 10%
1,804 ; 1,873 ; 1,891 ; 1,997 ; 2,192
  • Sales grew 10% in the third quarter to 2,192 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 5% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,464 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
29% 30% 29% 23% 23%
370 ; 347 ; 341 ; 245 ; 283
  • The cash margin went from 23% to 23% profit from 245 to 283 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 26% now.
  • We use a 26% cash margin to predict a 431 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
588 ; 534 ; 221 ; 636 ; 460
241 ; -899 ; -602 ; -638 ; -471
  • Free cashflow went from -1 to -11 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -471 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -190 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -307 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 313 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
4,671 ; 3,968 ; 3,602 ; 3,621 ; 3,172
9,600 ; 9,422 ; 9,255 ; 10,218 ; 10,161
  • Cash declined 3,621 to 3,172 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 10,218 to 10,161 billion rupiah so net cash was down -6,597 to -6,989 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,253 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,736 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
0 ; 328 ; 0 ; 0 ; 677
  • POWR.jk paid 677 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 677 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,253 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 10,724 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.49 X assets with a 15 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,253 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price 874 rupiah.
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