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POWR dull with negative cashflow
POWR Current 690 Target 877 + 27%
May 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
4% -1% -2% 4% 1%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-70% -74% -71% -70% -71%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
49, -12, 58, -26, -27
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-341 -398 -344 -382 -395
Capital paid flat, a 27% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
130, 171, 171, 194, 194
May 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
4% -1% -2% 4% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 132 million dollars -2% below our 135 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 147 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-70% -74% -71% -70% -71%
- The cash cost ratio went from -70% to -71% profit from 24 to 24 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -72% now.
- We use a lower -70% cost ratio to predict a 30 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
49, -12, 58, -26, -27
- Free cashflow went from -26 to -27 million dollars in the first quarter with -42 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -29 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 14 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-341 -398 -344 -382 -395
- Cash declined 278 to 251 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 660 to 646 million dollars so net cash worsened -382 to -395 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -23 million dollars equity payout -31 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -364 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat, a 27% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
130, 171, 171, 194, 194
- POWR 9 quarter capital paid was flat at million dollars in the first quarter but will be 247 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 777 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.54 X assets with a 21 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 54 million dollars which means an 14 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 27% higher target price 877 rupiah.