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PODD dull with ever negative cashflow
PODD Current 201 Target 152 -24%
Jun 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters
3% 4% 5% 12% -4%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-85% -81% -83% -80% -81%
Cashflow still negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-58, 7, -38, -62, -61
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-405 -593 -914 -701 -913
Capital raised improved , a -24% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-946 -974 -1,016 -1,014 -994
Jun 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters
3% 4% 5% 12% -4%
- Sales declined -4% in the first quarter to 295 million dollars -9% below our 325 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 338 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-85% -81% -83% -80% -81%
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -81% profit from 29 to 28 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use the average -81% cost ratio to predict a 36 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow still negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-58, 7, -38, -62, -61
- Free cashflow went from -62 to -61 million dollars in the first quarter with -47 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -38 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -26 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 37 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-405 -593 -914 -701 -913
- Cash declined 792 to 710 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,493 to 1,623 million dollars so net cash worsened -701 to -913 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -140 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -773 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -24% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-946 -974 -1,016 -1,014 -994
- PODD 29 quarter capital raised improved -1,014 to -994 million dollars in the first quarter with -6 million dollars liabilities +1 million dollars equity & will be -854 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,923 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 7 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 140 million dollars which means a 99 X valuation. A 75 X valuation gives a -24% lower target price 152 dollars.