PODD small positive cashflow
PODD Current 231 Target 135 -42%
September 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
4% 5% 12% -4% 1%
263 276 308 295 299
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-81% -83% -80% -81% -101%
-25 13 29 28 -35
Cashflow posituve
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
18 -26 -26 -14 25
-11 -12 -36 -47 -22
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
872 587 792 710 709
1,465 1,501 1,493 1,623 1,691
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-974 -1,016 -1,014 -994 -977
0 -55 29 6 23
0 13 -37 -1 -6
September 30, 2022
1 minute read
- PODD last 12 months sales growth + 14%
- PODD last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- PODD last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- PODD latest net cash -6% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
4% 5% 12% -4% 1%
263 276 308 295 299
- Sales grew 1% in the second quarter to 299 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 343 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-81% -83% -80% -81% -101%
-25 13 29 28 -35
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -101% profit from 28 to -35 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use a -84% cost ratio to predict a 26 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow posituve
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
18 -26 -26 -14 25
-11 -12 -36 -47 -22
- Free cashflow went positive from -61 to 3 million dollars in the second quarter with -22 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -39 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -22 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 31 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
872 587 792 710 709
1,465 1,501 1,493 1,623 1,691
- Cash declined 710 to 709 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,623 to 1,691 million dollars so net cash was down -913 to -982 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 million dollars equity -125 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -857 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-974 -1,016 -1,014 -994 -977
0 -55 29 6 23
0 13 -37 -1 -6
- PODD cumulative capital improved -994 to -977 million dollars with + 23 & -6 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -852 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 16,045 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 8 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 125 million dollars (vs -157 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 128 X valuation. A 75 X valuation gives a -42% lower target price 135 dollars.
