PNBN cashflow more positive
PNBN Current 2,050 Target 1,453 -29%
Aug 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
10% -13% -0% -5% -11%
4,776 4,179 4,177 3,950 3,502
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-54% -58% -49% -53% -60%
837 842 -477 666 938
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
12,485 -16,234 2,526 -371 505
7,790 -889 2,989 685 -20
Non cash assets to liabilities up
Last 5 quarters non cash assets & liabilities billion rupiah
204,597 198,788 202,722 204,388 198,942
158,596 151,815 155,915 157,053 151,390
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,398 -3,019 -227 -812 -509
3,879 357 2,791 -606 292
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 24, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -22% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
- Latest non cash assets to liabilities 131%.
Sales declined -11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
10% -13% -0% -5% -11%
4,776 4,179 4,177 3,950 3,502
- Sales declined -11% in the second quarter to 3,502 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 10% now.
- This brings the average to -7% growth.
- We predict positive average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,204 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-54% -58% -49% -53% -60%
837 842 -477 666 938
- The cash cost ratio went from -53% to -60% profit from 666 to 938 billion rupiah in the second quarter with lower provisions.
- The average cost ratio is at -55% now.
- We use a -55% cost ratio to predict a 1,357 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
12,485 -16,234 2,526 -371 505
7,790 -889 2,989 685 -20
- Free cashflow went from 314 to 485 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -20 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,702 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -371 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1,458 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Non cash assets to liabilities up
Last 5 quarters non cash assets & liabilities billion rupiah
204,597 198,788 202,722 204,388 198,942
158,596 151,815 155,915 157,053 151,390
- Non cash assets declined 204,388 to 198,942 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 157,053 to 151,390 billion rupiah .
- So non cash assets/ liabilities up 130% to 131%
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,398 -3,019 -227 -812 -509
3,879 357 2,791 -606 292
0 0 0 0 0
- PNBN cumulative capital improved -812 to -509 billion rupiah with + 292 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,056 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 49,367 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 5,831 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a -29% lower target price 1,453 rupiah.
