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PNBN, looking less sharp with negative cashflow
PNBN Current 1,010 Target 1,427 + 41%
4 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-14% 10% -13% -0% -5%
Costs up profit up on lower provisions
Last 5 quarters
-62% -54% -58% -49% -53%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
8,505 24,970 -32,468 5,052 -797
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters
-159,247 -157,408 -150,676 -154,175 -155,607
Capital raised worsened , a 41% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
-7,284, -3,398, -3,019, -227, -812
4 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-14% 10% -13% -0% -5%
- Sales declined -5% in the first quarter to 4,177 billion rupiah 6% above our 3,950 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,828 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit up on lower provisions
Last 5 quarters
-62% -54% -58% -49% -53%
- The cash cost ratio went from -49% to -53% profit from -477 to 666 billion rupiah on lower provisions in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -53% now.
- We use -53% cost ratio to predict a 1,078 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
8,505 24,970 -32,468 5,052 -797
- Free cashflow went from 5,052 to -797 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is mow negative too at -811 billion rupiah.
- We assume -371 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 1,890 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters
-159,247 -157,408 -150,676 -154,175 -155,607
- Non cash assets growth declined 2.0% to 0.8% in the first quarter. Average growth is -0.1% now.
- Liabilities growth declined 2.7% to 0.7% in the first quarter. Average growth is -0.5% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.1% to 1.9% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.1% now.
Capital raised worsened , a 41% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
-7,284, -3,398, -3,019, -227, -812
- PNBN 25 quarters capital raised worsened -227 to -812 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with 606 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 504 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 24,322 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.12 X assets with a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 7,635 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 41% higher target price 1,427 rupiah.