PNBN higher sales
PNBN Current 2,410 Target 1,843 -24%
04/11/2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 21%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-13% -0% -5% -11% 21%
4,179 4,177 3,950 3,502 4,242
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-58% -49% -53% -60% -63%
775 2,429 1,005 391 428
842 -477 666 938 903
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-16,255 2,525 -392 494 2,032
-889 2,989 685 -20 2
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, assets, liabilities billion rupiah
11,077 13,766 14,715 14,879 16,480
199,927 204,462 205,834 200,171 199,303
151,815 155,915 157,053 151,390 149,957
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3,019 -227 -812 -509 -59
357 2,791 -606 292 -54
0 0 0 0 481
04/11/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 2%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 14% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- Latest net cash -230% of market cap
Sales jumped 21%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-13% -0% -5% -11% 21%
4,179 4,177 3,950 3,502 4,242
- Sales jumped 21% in the third quarter to 4,242 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -8% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,501 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-58% -49% -53% -60% -63%
775 2,429 1,005 391 428
842 -477 666 938 903
- The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -63% profit from 938 to 903 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use a -63% cost ratio to predict a 1,066 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-16,255 2,525 -392 494 2,032
-889 2,989 685 -20 2
- Free cashflow went from 475 to 2,034 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 2 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,079 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -371 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1,233 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, assets, liabilities billion rupiah
11,077 13,766 14,715 14,879 16,480
199,927 204,462 205,834 200,171 199,303
151,815 155,915 157,053 151,390 149,957
- Cash increased 14,879 to 16,480 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 151,390 to 149,957 billion rupiah so net cash was up -136,511 to -133,477 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,222 billion rupiah equity payout -6 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -129,768 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3,019 -227 -812 -509 -59
357 2,791 -606 292 -54
0 0 0 0 481
- PNBN cumulative capital improved -509 to -59 billion rupiah with -54 & + 481 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 719 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 58,036 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a 2% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 4,931 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a -24% lower target price 1,843 rupiah.
