Picture
Other stocks here

PLUG, a -48% lower target price
Current 31 Target 16 -48%

December 15th 2021
1 minute read

Sales grew 15%
  • Sales grew 15% in the third quarter to 144 million dollars vs our 161 million dollars forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 44% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 192 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Costs still above 100%, triple digit loss
  • The cash cost ratio was still above 100% at -161% in the third quarter giving a -107 million dollars net profit.
  • The average cost ratio is at -162% now.
  • We use fixed costs giving a lower -121% cost ratio to predict a -59 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Cashflow positive on securities sales
  • Free cashflow was positive 290 million dollars in the third quarter with a positive 391 million dollars investment Cashflow from sale of securities.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -346 million dollars now.
  • We assume -30 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a -70 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Balance sheet, higher net cash
  • Cash increased from 3,160 to 3,372 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 958 to 1,033 million dollars so net cash increased from 2,202 to 2,339 million dollars
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout net cash will be down to 1,995 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Valuation
  • PLUG capital from the last 23 quarters improved slightly to -5,684 million dollars in the third quarter but will be -6,028 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 17,610 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3 X assets with a 0% yield.
  • Our 12 month sales forecast is 768 million dollars which means an 23 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a -48% lower target price of 16 dollars.