PLUG cashflow still negative
PLUG Current 29 Target 14 -54%
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
74% 15% 12% -12% 7%
125 144 161 141 151
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-164% -161% -145% -173% -169%
-99 -107 -193 -157 -173
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-130 -102 -10 -210 -195
-987 391 -727 274 -9
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
3,160 3,372 2,481 2,496 2,256
958 1,033 1,344 1,328 1,396
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-5,709 -5,684 -5,631 -5,608 -5,591
53 19 17
0 4 0
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- Latest net cash + 5% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
74% 15% 12% -12% 7%
125 144 161 141 151
- Sales grew 7% in the second quarter to 151 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 13% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 182 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-164% -161% -145% -173% -169%
-99 -107 -193 -157 -173
- The cash cost ratio went from -173% to -169% profit from -157 to -173 million dollars in the second quarter with higher non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -162% now.
- We use a -140% cost ratio to predict a -139 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-130 -102 -10 -210 -195
-987 391 -727 274 -9
- Free cashflow went from 64 to -204 million dollars in the second quarter with -9 investment cashflow vs investment gains in the first quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -147 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -9 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -87 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
3,160 3,372 2,481 2,496 2,256
958 1,033 1,344 1,328 1,396
- Cash declined 2,496 to 2,256 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,328 to 1,396 million dollars so net cash was down 1,168 to 860 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout + 347 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 513 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-5,709 -5,684 -5,631 -5,608 -5,591
53 19 17
0 4 0
- PLUG cumulative capital improved -5,608 to -5,591 million dollars with + 17 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -5,938 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 16,892 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3 X assets with a years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 730 million dollars which means a 23 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a -54% lower target price 14 dollars.
