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Picture
Picture

PLTR Cashflow more positive

Current 8 Target 9 + 15%

Feb 14, 2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 18%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -1% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities 11% of market cap

Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
10% 3% 6% 1% 6%
433 ; 446 ; 473 ; 478 ; 509 million dollars
  • Sales grew 6% in the fourth quarter to 509 million dollars .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 4% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 573 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
31% 27% 25% 21% 30%
-156 ; -101 ; -180 ; -124 ; 34 million dollars
  • The cash profit margin went from 21% to 30% net profit from -124 to 34 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 26% now.
  • We use a 30% cash profit margin to predict a 53 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
94 ; 36 ; 62 ; 47 ; 79 million dollars
-182 ; -97 ; 6 ; -28 ; 74 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 19 to 153 million dollars in the fourth quarter with 74 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 45 million dollars now.
  • We assume -40 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 126 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
2,291 ; 2,269 ; 2,358 ; 2,411 ; 2,599 million dollars
956 ; 954 ; 934 ; 932 ; 819 million dollars
  • Cash increased 2,411 to 2,599 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 932 to 819 million dollars so net cash was up 1,479 to 1,780 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -55 million dollars equity payout -152 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 2,230 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 million dollars
-33 ; -27 ; -21 ; -24 ; -14 million dollars
  • PLTR (raised) -14 million dollars in the fourth quarter 0 million dollars liabilities -14 million dollars equity, will pay 207 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 15,830 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 4.61 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 0% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 505 million dollars which means a 31 X valuation. A 36 X valuation gives a 15% higher target price 9 dollars.
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