PGUN rising positive cashflow
PGUN Current 705 Target 798 + 13%
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 55%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
31% -30% 43% -16% 55%
227 159 228 192 298
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-111% -148% -98% -105% -73%
7 -44 40 17 32
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
7 -14 -28 26 30
-3 15 -42 -11 -4
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
21 1 7 0 2
979 985 956 956 936
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
51 71 -4 18 43
0 20 -75 22 25
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -27% of market cap
Sales jumped 55%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
31% -30% 43% -16% 55%
227 159 228 192 298
- Sales jumped 55% in the second quarter to 298 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 341 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-111% -148% -98% -105% -73%
7 -44 40 17 32
- The cash cost ratio went from -105% to -73% profit from 17 to 32 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -106% now.
- We use the latest -73% cost ratio to predict a 65 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
7 -14 -28 26 30
-3 15 -42 -11 -4
- Free cashflow went from 15 to 26 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -4 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -7 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 77 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
21 1 7 0 2
979 985 956 956 936
- Cash increased 0 to 2 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 956 to 936 billion rupiah so net cash was up -956 to -935 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -70 billion rupiah equity payout -174 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -698 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
51 71 -4 18 43
0 20 -75 22 25
0 0 0 0 0
- PGUN cumulative capital improved 18 to 43 billion rupiah with + 25 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 287 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,524 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.40 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 307 billion rupiah which means an 11 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price 798 rupiah.
