PGAS at 4X cashflow
PGAS Current 1,945 Target 3,102 + 59%
11/6/2022
1 minute read
Sales flat
Last 5 quarters growth, sales & sales million dollars
8% -1% 7% 8% -0%
790 782 837 903 901
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-79% -88% -72% -73% -78%
109 35 140 138 88
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
179 112 182 172 272
-70 -60 -35 43 55
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
1,433 1,503 1,360 1,345 1,646
4,252 4,226 3,963 3,901 3,938
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
1,257 1,239 1,527 1,740 1,748
24 -32 288 -20 8
12 12 0 232 0
11/6/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 14%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 24% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 16% of market cap
- Latest net cash -73% of market cap
Sales flat
Last 5 quarters growth, sales & sales million dollars
8% -1% 7% 8% -0%
790 782 837 903 901
- Sales declined -0% in the third quarter to 901 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 985 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-79% -88% -72% -73% -78%
109 35 140 138 88
- The cash cost ratio went from -73% to -78% profit from 138 to 88 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use a -78% cost ratio to predict a 121 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
179 112 182 172 272
-70 -60 -35 43 55
- Free cashflow went from 215 to 327 million dollars in the third quarter with 55 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 185 million dollars now.
- We assume 1 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 209 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
1,433 1,503 1,360 1,345 1,646
4,252 4,226 3,963 3,901 3,938
- Cash increased 1,345 to 1,646 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,901 to 3,938 million dollars so net cash was up -2,556 to -2,292 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & -45 million dollars equity -730 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -1,501 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
1,257 1,239 1,527 1,740 1,748
24 -32 288 -20 8
12 12 0 232 0
- PGAS cumulative capital improved 1,740 to 1,748 million dollars with + 8 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 2,523 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,143 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.45 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 835 million dollars (vs 741 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 59% higher target price 3,102 rupiah.
