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PGAS looking sharper as sales rise
PGAS Current 1,450 Target 2,583 + 78%
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters
-0% -0% 8% -1% 7%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -72% -79% -88% -72%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
63, 206, 109, 52, 147
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,325 -3,009 -2,819 -2,723 -2,603
Capital paid improved , a 78% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,190, 1,225, 1,257, 1,239, 1,527
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters
-0% -0% 8% -1% 7%
- Sales grew 7% in the first quarter to 837 million dollars 6% above our 790 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 931 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -72% -79% -88% -72%
- The cash cost ratio went from -88% to -72% profit from 35 to 140 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the average -78% cost ratio to predict a 113 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
63, 206, 109, 52, 147
- Free cashflow went from 52 to 147 million dollars in the first quarter with lower -35 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 129 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -35 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 164 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,325 -3,009 -2,819 -2,723 -2,603
- Cash declined 1,503 to 1,360 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,226 to 3,963 million dollars so net cash improved -2,723 to -2,603 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -44 million dollars equity payout -627 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,976 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 78% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,190, 1,225, 1,257, 1,239, 1,527
- PGAS 25 quarter capital paid improved 1,239 to 1,527 million dollars in the first quarter with a -288 million dollars liabilities payment & will be 1,998 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,511 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.35 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 639 million dollars which means an 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 78% higher target price 2,583 rupiah.