PGAS at 5X cashflow
PGAS Current 1,835 Target 2,645 + 44%
September 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-0% 8% -1% 7% 8%
732 790 782 837 903
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-72% -79% -88% -72% -73%
145 109 35 140 138
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
100 179 112 182 172
107 -70 -60 -35 43
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
1,348 1,433 1,503 1,360 1,345
4,357 4,252 4,226 3,963 3,901
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
1,225 1,257 1,239 1,527 1,740
35 24 -32 288 -20
0 12 12 0 232
September 23, 2022
1 minute read
- PGAS last 12 months sales growth + 23%
- PGAS last 12 months cash flow 4X average + 17% of market cap
- PGAS last 12 months Capital 17X average + 17% of market cap
- PGAS latest net cash -83% of market cap
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-0% 8% -1% 7% 8%
732 790 782 837 903
- Sales grew 8% in the second quarter to 903 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 996 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-72% -79% -88% -72% -73%
145 109 35 140 138
- The cash cost ratio went from -72% to -73% profit from 140 to 138 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the average -78% cost ratio to predict a 129 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
100 179 112 182 172
107 -70 -60 -35 43
- Free cashflow went from 147 to 215 million dollars in the second quarter with 43 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 131 million dollars now.
- We assume -30 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 158 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
1,348 1,433 1,503 1,360 1,345
4,357 4,252 4,226 3,963 3,901
- Cash declined 1,360 to 1,345 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,963 to 3,901 million dollars so net cash was up -2,603 to -2,556 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & -49 million dollars equity -583 million dollars liabilities, net cash will be -1,884 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
1,225 1,257 1,239 1,527 1,740
35 24 -32 288 -20
0 12 12 0 232
- PGAS cumulative capital improved 1,527 to 1,740 million dollars with -20 & + 232 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 2,372 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,068 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.44 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 632 million dollars (vs 523 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 44% higher target price 2,645 rupiah.
