PG Cashflow less positive
Current 146 Target 152 + 4%
1/20/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
3% -8% 1% 6% 1%
20,953 ; 19,381 ; 19,515 ; 20,612 ; 20,773 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
44% -22% 19% 42% 3%
4,242 ; 3,367 ; 3,058 ; 3,963 ; 3,959 million dollars
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
5,121 ; 3,246 ; 3,713 ; 4,070 ; 3,574 million dollars
-960 ; -1,776 ; -682 ; -832 ; -490 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
11,544 ; 8,526 ; 7,214 ; 6,710 ; 6,854 million dollars
76,523 ; 74,470 ; 70,354 ; 71,948 ; 72,990 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-3,500 ; 1,613 ; 851 ; -2,560 ; -991 million dollars
6,358 ; 2,819 ; 3,307 ; 6,067 ; 3,984 million dollars
Current 146 Target 152 + 4%
1/20/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -1%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 4% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -19% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
3% -8% 1% 6% 1%
20,953 ; 19,381 ; 19,515 ; 20,612 ; 20,773 million dollars
- Sales grew 1% in the fourth quarter to 20,773 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -100% now.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 21,822 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
44% -22% 19% 42% 3%
4,242 ; 3,367 ; 3,058 ; 3,963 ; 3,959 million dollars
- The cash margin went from 42% to 3% profit from 3,963 to 3,959 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 10% now.
- We use a 19% cash margin to predict a 5,524 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
5,121 ; 3,246 ; 3,713 ; 4,070 ; 3,574 million dollars
-960 ; -1,776 ; -682 ; -832 ; -490 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 3,238 to 3,084 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -490 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,706 million dollars now.
- We assume -945 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 3,002 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
11,544 ; 8,526 ; 7,214 ; 6,710 ; 6,854 million dollars
76,523 ; 74,470 ; 70,354 ; 71,948 ; 72,990 million dollars
- Cash increased 6,710 to 6,854 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 71,948 to 72,990 million dollars so net cash was down -65,238 to -66,136 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -10,812 million dollars equity payout -1,198 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -64,938 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-3,500 ; 1,613 ; 851 ; -2,560 ; -991 million dollars
6,358 ; 2,819 ; 3,307 ; 6,067 ; 3,984 million dollars
- PG paid 2,993 million dollars in the fourth quarter -991 million dollars liabilities 3,984 million dollars equity, will pay 12,009 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 346,948 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.72 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 12,009 million dollars which means a 29 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 152 rupiah.