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PFE, a -12% lower target price
Current 56 Target 49 -12%
January 9th 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 27%, we predict a slowdown
Costs up 11 points, profit up on non cash gains
Cashflow lower on investment (into securities…)
Balance sheet higher leverage
Valuation, a -12% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 27%, we predict a slowdown
- Sales grew 27% in the third quarter to 24,094 million dollars & are up 134% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 24% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 25,303 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs up 11 points, profit up on non cash gains
- The cash cost ratio went up 11 points from -71% to -82% profit from 5,566 to 8,167 million dollars on non cash gains in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -71% now.
- We use the average -71% cost ratio to predict a 6,430 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow lower on investment (into securities…)
- Free cashflow went from 3,162 to 747 million dollars in the third quarter with very negative -10,076 million dollars investment.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5,164 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -2,908 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 4,502 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
- Cash declined 2,420 to 2,033 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 70,315 to 75,967 million dollars so net cash worsened -67,895 to -73,934 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -7,481 million dollars equity payout -9,741 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -91,447 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -12% lower target price
- PFE capital from the last 99 quarters improved 149,999 to 151,425 million dollars in the third quarter with 759 million dollars new liabilities, a -2,185 million dollars equity payout & will be 178,053 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 312,700 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.67 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 2.4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 17,222 million dollars which means an 18 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a -12% lower target price of 49 dollars.