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Picture

PEP strong sales

Picture
Current 175 Target 182 + 4%

Mar 20, 2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 11%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 4% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -29% of market cap
  • Latest Market value to assets 2.6 X, Cashflow to assets 9%
​
Sales grew seasonally 27%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
25% -36% 25% 9% 27%
25,248 ; 16,200 ; 20,225 ; 21,971 ; 27,996 million dollars
  • Sales grew seasonally 27% in the fourth quarter to 27,996 million dollars .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 28,593 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
10% 14% 16% 15% 12%
1,341 ; 4,273 ; 1,446 ; 2,724 ; 535 million dollars
  • The cash profit margin went from 15% to 12% net profit from 2,724 to 535 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 14% now.
  • We use a 14% cash profit margin to predict a 3,281 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,982 ; -174 ; 2,055 ; 4,425 ; 4,505 million dollars
-2,239 ; 2,955 ; -783 ; -1,863 ; -2,739 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 2,562 to 1,766 million dollars in the fourth quarter with larger -2,739 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,095 million dollars now.
  • We assume -1,443 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,751 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
5,596 ; 6,561 ; 5,405 ; 6,415 ; 4,954 million dollars
76,226 ; 74,642 ; 74,429 ; 75,326 ; 74,914 million dollars
  • Cash declined 6,415 to 4,954 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 75,326 to 74,914 million dollars so net cash was down -68,911 to -69,960 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -9,695 million dollars equity payout + 2,693 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -72,653 million dollars in 12 months time.

Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1,226 ; 212 ; 212 ; -567 ; 1,026 million dollars
1,457 ; 1,847 ; 1,847 ; 2,057 ; 1,890 million dollars
  • PEP paid 2,916 million dollars in the fourth quarter 1,026 million dollars liabilities 1,890 million dollars equity, will pay 7,003 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 243,098 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.56 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 4% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 7,003 million dollars which means a 35 X valuation. A 36 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 182 dollars.
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