PEP faster sales growth
PEP Current 163 Target 182 + 12%
October 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
5% 25% -36% 25% 9%
20,189 25,248 16,200 20,225 21,971
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-85% -90% -86% -84% -85%
2,243 1,341 4,273 1,446 2,724
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
4,294 4,982 -174 2,055 4,425
-914 -2,239 2,955 -783 -1,863
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
6,506 5,596 6,561 5,405 6,415
77,264 76,226 74,642 74,429 75,326
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
12,627 15,310 17,369 19,427 20,917
1,226 1,226 212 212 -567
1,457 1,457 1,847 1,847 2,057
October 12, 2022
1 minute read
- PEP last 12 months sales growth + 9%
- PEP last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- PEP last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- PEP latest net cash -31% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
5% 25% -36% 25% 9%
20,189 25,248 16,200 20,225 21,971
- Sales grew 9% in the third quarter to 21,971 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 23,134 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-85% -90% -86% -84% -85%
2,243 1,341 4,273 1,446 2,724
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -85% profit from 1,446 to 2,724 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 2,795 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
4,294 4,982 -174 2,055 4,425
-914 -2,239 2,955 -783 -1,863
- Free cashflow went from 1,272 to 2,562 million dollars in the third quarter with -1,863 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,340 million dollars now.
- We assume -483 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2,613 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
6,506 5,596 6,561 5,405 6,415
77,264 76,226 74,642 74,429 75,326
- Cash increased 5,405 to 6,415 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 74,429 to 75,326 million dollars so net cash was up -69,024 to -68,911 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & -7,235 million dollars equity -3,219 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -65,692 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
12,627 15,310 17,369 19,427 20,917
1,226 1,226 212 212 -567
1,457 1,457 1,847 1,847 2,057
- PEP cumulative capital improved 19,427 to 20,917 million dollars with -567 & + 2,057 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 31,371 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 224,387 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.37 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 10,454 million dollars (vs 9,498 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 21 X valuation. A 24 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price 182 dollars.
