PENN at 6X cashflow
PENN Current 28 Target 49 + 79%
October 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
21% -2% 4% 15% -10%
1,546 1,512 1,572 1,806 1,627
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-77% -85% -87% -85% -83%
199 86 45 52 26
Cashflow lower but positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
308 259 101 179 203
-72 -170 -953 -40 -74
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
2,275 2,729 1,865 1,806 1,708
12,120 12,677 12,775 14,118 14,115
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-2,226 -2,582 -2,594 -2,354 -2,117
0 -366 -26 21 63
0 -9 -2 173 166
October 1, 2022
1 minute read
- PENN last 12 months sales growth + 5%
- PENN last 12 months cash flow -11% of market cap
- PENN last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
- PENN latest net cash -284% of market cap
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
21% -2% 4% 15% -10%
1,546 1,512 1,572 1,806 1,627
- Sales declined -10% in the second quarter to 1,627 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -6% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,703 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-77% -85% -87% -85% -83%
199 86 45 52 26
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -83% profit from 52 to 26 million dollars in the second quarter on higher non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 3 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower but positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
308 259 101 179 203
-72 -170 -953 -40 -74
- Free cashflow went from 139 to 129 million dollars in the second quarter with -74 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -124 million dollars now.
- We assume -57 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 195 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
2,275 2,729 1,865 1,806 1,708
12,120 12,677 12,775 14,118 14,115
- Cash declined 1,806 to 1,708 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 14,118 to 14,115 million dollars so net cash was down -12,312 to -12,407 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 million dollars equity -781 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -11,626 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-2,226 -2,582 -2,594 -2,354 -2,117
0 -366 -26 21 63
0 -9 -2 173 166
- PENN cumulative capital improved -2,354 to -2,117 million dollars with + 63 & + 166 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,336 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,362 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.26 X assets with a 21 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 781 million dollars (vs -410 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 79% higher target price 49 dollars.
