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PENN sharper as cashflow positive again on Lower investment
PENN Current 30 Target 67 + 121%
Jul 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 15%
Last 5 quarters
24% 21% -2% 4% 15%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -77% -85% -87% -85%
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters million dollars
154, 252, 104, -836, 185
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-10,070 -9,845 -9,948 -10,910 -12,312
Capital raised improved , a 121% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,267 -2,226 -2,582 -2,594 -2,354
Jul 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 15%
Last 5 quarters
24% 21% -2% 4% 15%
- Sales grew seasonally 15% in the first quarter to 1,806 million dollars 16% above our 1,556 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,204 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -77% -85% -87% -85%
- The cash cost ratio went from -87% to -85% profit from 45 to 52 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use the average -83% cost ratio to predict a 144 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters million dollars
154, 252, 104, -836, 185
- Free cashflow went positive again from -836 to 185 million dollars in the first quarter with lower -40 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -74 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -40 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 325 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-10,070 -9,845 -9,948 -10,910 -12,312
- Cash declined 1,865 to 1,806 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 12,775 to 14,118 million dollars so net cash worsened -10,910 to -12,312 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -160 million dollars equity payout -963 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -11,349 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 121% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,267 -2,226 -2,582 -2,594 -2,354
- PENN 21 quarter capital raised improved -2,594 to -2,354 million dollars in the first quarter with + 21 million dollars liabilities + 173 million dollars equity & will be -1,231 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,074 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.29 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,123 million dollars which means a 5 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 121% higher target price 67 dollars.
