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PALM, looking a bit odd as sales slump, cashflows jumps, but on investment gains…
PALM Current 815 Target 601 -26%
March 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -46%
Last 5 quarters
-22% 30% 34% 15% -46%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -76% -70% -59% -209%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-9, 9, 22, 56, 375
Balance sheet net cash
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-140, -102, -87, -59, 421
Capital paid flat, a -26% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
321, 343, 359, 375, 375
March 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -46%
Last 5 quarters
-22% 30% 34% 15% -46%
- Sales declined -46% in the fourth quarter to 56 billion rupiah far below our 119 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 14% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 94 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -76% -70% -59% -209%
- The cash cost ratio went from -59% to -209% profit from -553 to 1,806 billion rupiah on non cash gains in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -47% now.
- We use a -67% cost ratio to predict a 28 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-9, 9, 22, 56, 375
- Free cashflow went from 56 to 375 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 335 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 151 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 27 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet net cash
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-140, -102, -87, -59, 421
- Cash increased 86 to 461 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 145 to 40 billion rupiah so net cash turned positive -59 to 421 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -117 billion rupiah equity payout 24 billion rupiah new liabilities, net cash will be 398 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat, a -26% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
321, 343, 359, 375, 375
- PALM 8 quarters of capital paid was flat at 375 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter, but will be 468 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,767 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.98 X assets with a 51 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 106 billion rupiah which means an 54 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a -26% lower target price of 601 rupiah.