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PALM, looking a bit odd as sales slump, cashflows jumps, but on investment gains…

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PALM Current 815 Target 601 -26%

March 6, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined -46%
Last 5 quarters
-22% 30% 34% 15% -46%
  • Sales declined -46% in the fourth quarter to 56 billion rupiah far below our 119 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 14% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 94 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022. ​

​Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -76% -70% -59% -209%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -59% to -209% profit from -553 to 1,806 billion rupiah on non cash gains in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -47% now.
  • We use a -67% cost ratio to predict a 28 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.

Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-9, 9, 22, 56, 375
  • Free cashflow went from 56 to 375 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 335 billion rupiah investment gains.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 151 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 27 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Balance sheet net cash
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-140, -102, -87, -59, 421
  • Cash increased 86 to 461 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 145 to 40 billion rupiah so net cash turned positive -59 to 421 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -117 billion rupiah equity payout 24 billion rupiah new liabilities, net cash will be 398 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

​Capital paid flat, a -26% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
321, 343, 359, 375, 375
  • PALM 8 quarters of capital paid was flat at 375 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter, but will be 468 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 5,767 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.98 X assets with a 51 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 106 billion rupiah which means an 54 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a -26% lower target price of 601 rupiah.
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